“At this stage, they’re more name recognition polls than indicative of support.”
Name recognition is what wins primaries. Most voters never get much beyond that. History is your friend.
Yes, but the key issue here is that we haven't seen primary campaigns by any of these guys for 2016. The name recognition is skewed based upon current events. For example, Rubio's grandstanding with the Gang of 8 has given him media coverage that provides name recognition right now that more viable contenders for the GOP presidential nomination do not have because they are not in the media spotlight.
When the campaigns go full throttle, that's where the name recognition becomes important. Even then, a Senator Ted Cruz will tell you that name recognition (Dewhurst) isn't all that it is cracked up to be in the GOP primaries. More so in the general election.