The problem is you can’t make a prediction based on facts, or fundamentals. There is a psychological element which can make the same base fundamentals play out very differently. Right now, we are in an era where risk has not had consequence for some time, and people have been conditioned to ignore it. If there is a shake-up, and some heavy hitters begin to see their empires threatened, they will pull back to protect themselves. As they do, everyone else may get a pucker moment, and not want to be the ones left holding the bag. Almost overnight, a market which ignores bad news could become a market which panics, and everything could be different. If lending is suddenly seen as risky, you will have trouble.
I agree, there is no guarantee of a depression in the next few years, but I would not rule it out. Those cars which are selling are often leases, the educations people are getting are on credit, most of the government is borrowed, and governments are not getting out of debt. China looks precarious. Especially in Europe, one card pulled out from the wrong bank, or a hiccup for the Euro, and it could trigger a chain of events which would reverberate.
On top of it, we are in a weird psychological state where I think nobody sees any risk to anything. The Boston bombing killed or maimed how many people, and we have already forgotten about it. The Stock Market goes up on bad news. Obamacare is as foreboding as anything, and everyone knows it, but who cares? We are in a weird, risk-blind, uncaring phase which I think will change back at some point. When it does, it will have economic effect.
Plus, in the background, those slackers do affect the economy, as many are not only draining borrowed tax dollars from the government, they are also producing five or six kids, who will do the same. Did you see that girl on the Zimmerman witness stand? She will have six kids before all is said and done. The Idiocracy is real, it is consuming increasing amounts of your tax dollars, making you work harder for less reward (and subconsciously conditioning everyone to see work as less rewarding) and it will affect the economy as time goes on.
From a biology perspective, this is the r-selected environment, and it cannot last forever. The question is when it will shift to K-selection, and how harshly. I would not rule out a shift in a few years.
The whole Zimmerman trial WILL end up in a mistrial, count on it.