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Adjusted Recovery: Non-Farm Payrolls Leap +165k, Helped By BLS Birth/Death Adjustment Of +193k
Confounded Interest ^ | 05/03/2013 | Anthony B. Sanders

Posted on 05/03/2013 1:27:47 PM PDT by whitedog57

Good News! Non-farm payrolls increase by 165,000 and the unemployment rate declined to 7.5%.

Bad News! It had to be helped by a 193,000 increase due to the BLS Birth/Death adjustment.

May 3 (Bloomberg) — Employment picked up more than forecast in April and the jobless rate unexpectedly declined to a four-year low of 7.5 percent, showing federal budget cuts failed to destabilize the U.S. labor market.

Payrolls expanded by 165,000 workers last month following a revised 138,000 increase in March that was larger than first estimated. The median forecast of 90 economists projected a 140,000 gain. Revisions added a total of 114,000 jobs to the employment count in February and March.

The BLS’ Net Birth/Death Adjustment added 193,000 all by its lonesome.

Although unemployment declined, U6 unemployment rose to 13.9%.

And labor force participation remained the same.

Civilian employment to population ratio actually increased!

The employment to population ratio tracks the Case-Shiller 20 house price index.

And here is where the job creation was … or wasn’t.

The US economy added 165,000 jobs but US businesses paid $323.2 million less in total wage compensation. Aggregate weekly hours worked in retail plunged by 0.7% in April, which is the equivalent of cutting 11,000 jobs.

And the market celebrated the good news with a 12 basis point gain in the US 10 year Treasury yield.

Only the PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain) saw a decline in sovereign yields. Everyone else was up.

And US equity markets are celebrating as well.

I am not sure that they should be celebrating.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Government; Politics
KEYWORDS: bls; employment; obama; payrolls
BLS is BS
1 posted on 05/03/2013 1:27:47 PM PDT by whitedog57
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To: whitedog57

Those gubmint boys sure are good with numbers. No wonder Americans are all going broke.


2 posted on 05/03/2013 1:30:58 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (I got expelled from the "fundamental transformation" indoctrination center.)
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To: whitedog57
If we look at the "employed" figure of 143,724,000 people a drop of 0.2 hours is a full-time-equivalent decrease of 1/2%. Applied to the employed population this amounts to an imputed economic decrease of 718,620 jobs!
3 posted on 05/03/2013 4:04:52 PM PDT by TwelveOfTwenty (Ho, ho, hey, hey, I'm BUYcotting Chick-Fil-A)
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