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Collapse of Higher-Ed Bubble Draws Near
Michigan Capitol Confidential ^ | 1/27/2013 | Jack McHugh

Posted on 01/29/2013 8:03:39 AM PST by MichCapCon

With a surplus of middle-tier state universities offering four-year degrees whose value is coming under increasing scrutiny by students and families, Michigan is ripe for a revolution described by an article in the current American Interest online, “The End of the University as We Know It” by Nathan Harden.

If it hasn't already, this broad overview of a higher education system on the cusp of a transformation brought about by online learning should be sending chills up the spines of high-paid university presidents and their legions of administrators.

"The higher-ed business is in for a lot of pain as a new era of creative destruction produces a merciless shakeout of those institutions that adapt and prosper from those that stall and die," Harden writes. "Meanwhile, students themselves are in for a golden age, characterized by near-universal access to the highest quality teaching and scholarship at a minimal cost."

Some of the same forces pushing this revolution are already impacting university bottom lines and "pricing power," according to a new Moody's study reported by The Wall Street Journal:

For the (current) fiscal year, 18% of 165 private universities and 15% of 127 public universities project a decline in net tuition revenue… Nearly half of the schools surveyed by Moody's reported enrollment declines this fall, though overall median enrollment remained relatively flat from the previous year… Moody's also attributed the enrollment decline at some public universities to a ‘heightened scrutiny of the value of higher education’ after years of tuition increases and stagnating family income. Legislators had better start paying attention, because like the implosion of the housing bubble, the higher ed one is all but certain to have an impact on future budgets.

While elite institutions like the University of Michigan are in a better position to navigate the transition, schools like Central Michigan University, Western Michigan University, Ferris State University and the rest of Michigan’s smaller state universities may be in deep trouble. Their massive overhangs of debt and underfunded employee pension promises are all but certain to bite taxpayers here as students and families increasingly discover alternative ways to acquire both learning and marketable credentials at a fraction of the cost of a residential college.

As Harden puts it:

(T)hose middle-tier universities that have spent the past few decades spending tens or even hundreds of millions to offer students the Disneyland for Geeks experience are going to find themselves in real trouble. Along with luxury dorms and dining halls, vast athletic facilities, state of the art game rooms, theaters and student centers have come layers of staff and non-teaching administrators, all of which drives up the cost of the college degree without enhancing student learning. The biggest mistake a non-ultra-elite university could make today is to spend lavishly to expand its physical space. Buying large swaths of land and erecting vast new buildings is an investment in the past, not the future.(Emphasis added) Recent actions show that Michigan’s Legislature has been less than far-sighted in this regard.

2012 House Bill 5541: Appropriations: Borrow and spend $613 million on state university construction projects, signed by Gov. Rick Snyder on June 25, 2012.

Who Voted "Yes" and Who Voted "No” in the House

Who Voted "Yes" and Who Voted "No” in the Senate

Don’t expect leadership from this state’s bloated, multi-billion dollar higher-ed establishment, either.

Says Harden, “The biggest obstacle to the rapid adoption of low-cost, open-source education in America is that many of the stakeholders make a very handsome living off the system as is.”


TOPICS: Education
KEYWORDS: colleges

1 posted on 01/29/2013 8:03:50 AM PST by MichCapCon
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To: MichCapCon

So basically we will end up with Ivy League and Top State Schools like Penn State to chose from and the small and middle Universities will close. Sounds good to me. I think they should be much more selective in choosing students and only a percentage of say 20 percent of the students should go to college. In the LONG run this will be an improvement over the current situation where college is deems to be the saving grace of success which is more and more not becoming to truth. We must stop looking down on those students who decide not to go to college. Look I have an MBA and would NEVER look poorly on a person who chose a profession that gets their hands dirty. It is just arrogant and quite frankly stupid.


2 posted on 01/29/2013 8:17:04 AM PST by napscoordinator (GOP Candidate 2020 - "Bloomberg 2020 - We vote for whatever crap the GOP puts in front of us.")
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To: MichCapCon
I think everything a student needs to study should be available on-line for a relatively low fee (I'm thinking a few hundred bucks tops, but let the market place decide), and then allow people to come to a brick and mortar site to to take accrediting exams. As an employer, I really care more about how you scored on your professional exams than where you studied for them. On-line diplomas are highly questionable, but on-line education is the future.

Every profession should devalue diplomas and place the emphasis on what knowledge you actually have. Let an employer or a group of employers pick the test they want to administer or recognize and then have that be the benchmark. Much like engineering, medical boards, and the various BAR exams.

Overpriced universities would quickly loose the draw.

3 posted on 01/29/2013 8:26:03 AM PST by SampleMan (Feral Humans are the refuse of socialism.)
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To: napscoordinator

I have one thing to say about Universities and their losing all of that Government student loan money that used to be easy.

Bwahahahahahahahahahahahahhaha

Support your Community Colleges.


4 posted on 01/29/2013 8:26:56 AM PST by Venturer
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To: MichCapCon

If people would stop and do a cost to benefit analysis, a lot of them would say it isn’t worth it. Let alone all those that have college loan debt but no degree because they figured out after a year or two that college wasn’t for them! Many kids just go to college because it’s what their parents want rather than what they want. Once they are on their own, they say “screw it” (no, not a frat or sorority joke there...lol) and leave school.

When a parent tells me that their kid is going to trade school or an apprenticeship, I make sure I am as genuinely excited for them as I would be if they told me their kid was going to Hahvahd, Yale, or a State school.


5 posted on 01/29/2013 8:27:33 AM PST by copaliscrossing (Progressives are Socialists)
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To: MichCapCon
Me? I just signed up for a refresher course in algorithms via Coursera given by Stanford Online.

Cost? Free - but I am going to buy the textbook for future reference.

6 posted on 01/29/2013 8:28:14 AM PST by glorgau
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To: Springman; Sioux-san; 70th Division; JPG; PGalt; DuncanWaring; taildragger; epluribus_2; Chuck54; ..
We're way overdue for stripping all federal and state funding from these schools. Let them survive on private money. If someone wants to send their kid to a liberal school, let them pay for it.

If anyone wants to be added to the Michigan Cap Con ping list, let me know.
7 posted on 01/29/2013 8:35:19 AM PST by cripplecreek (REMEMBER THE RIVER RAISIN!)
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To: MichCapCon

The ultimate end of all corrupt systems.


8 posted on 01/29/2013 8:44:50 AM PST by YHAOS
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To: copaliscrossing

YEP...what you said. My son did about 2 quarters at a community college and did fine, but hated it. (I have college degrees). So....my husband and I ended up using any potential “college money” to buy his bonding for his construction business. He has done well.


9 posted on 01/29/2013 8:49:05 AM PST by goodnesswins (R.I.P. Doherty, Smith, Stevens, Woods.)
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To: SampleMan

Check out wgu.edu.


10 posted on 01/29/2013 8:51:28 AM PST by SeaHawkFan
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To: MichCapCon
Become a "Doctor of Social Justice" at UMass! Get to crap on white men and be paid for it! Earn big bucks working for Leftist Lunatic social groups that are supported by other peoples' tax money! Be invited to all the "in" parties in the Five College Area! Drive a Volvo!
11 posted on 01/29/2013 9:08:33 AM PST by pabianice (washington, dc ..)
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To: goodnesswins
YEP...what you said. My son did about 2 quarters at a community college and did fine, but hated it. (I have college degrees). So....my husband and I ended up using any potential “college money” to buy his bonding for his construction business. He has done well.

That is a fantastic outcome! I think we as a country need to change how we think about the value of manual labor and non-college type occupations.

Back in the late 70's, I was one of those that realized very early on that college WAS NOT for me. So I enrolled in a trade school and learned how to do computer programming and started my career shortly after getting my diploma after an intensive 8 months of programming at the trade school. A lot of people I meet now cannot believe I didn't go to college and I just tell them that the college thing just "wasn't my gig".

In the professional world now, I see so many kids coming out with Bachelors Degrees that don't have a lick of sense and I wonder how in the world they graduated from college. Or better yet, look at some of these professional athletes doing interviews on TV that cannot even put a coherent sentence together. Yep, graduated from HotShot U but still dumber that a box of rocks. It really is all about the money.

With that said, one of my sons is in the Business School at the University of Hawaii on a baseball scholarship. His scholarship basically pays for his tuition and we cover his housing. It is tough being a D1 athlete and keeping grades up but I'm proud that he pulled a 4.0 his fall semester this year. He should come out of school debt free.
12 posted on 01/29/2013 9:17:37 AM PST by copaliscrossing (Progressives are Socialists)
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To: MichCapCon

This is no different from the housing bubble - fueled by Gov’t money and mandates and a public who is duped into believing it is “must have” and “the value can never go down.”

There is A LOT of fat to be cut in higher education. I can’t wait to see the SHTF.


13 posted on 01/29/2013 9:40:29 AM PST by PGR88
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To: MichCapCon

I’m happy to say my kid is applying @ Hillsdale later this year. There is no under-value at that university.


14 posted on 01/29/2013 10:10:04 AM PST by Damifino (The true measure of a man is found in what he would do if he knew no one would ever find out.)
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To: glorgau
Don't forget to check out KhanAcademy.org. I have taken most of the higher math classes to refresh my math skills. Great stuff.

Have also taken numerous of the MIT OpenCourseWare courses. Prof Lewin makes physics easy and fun.

15 posted on 01/29/2013 10:12:23 AM PST by RoosterRedux (Get armed, practice in the use of your weapons, get physically fit, stay alert!)
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To: MichCapCon

The “Big Education” cycle greatly benefits liberals.
I think it will be around for a long time.

1)make unlimited loans available to students
2)inflate school prices sufficient to absorb loan funds
3)pay profs and admins inflated salaries
4)profs and admins donate to Democrats

and repeat.....


16 posted on 01/29/2013 10:17:35 AM PST by nascarnation (Baraq's economic policy: trickle up poverty)
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