And to you LJ!
We need to be careful in these discussions that we really understand the cost of armed rebellion and the real chances of anything even resembling “victory.”
Nevertheless, I always keep in mind these two quotes in these kinds of debates:
“Still, if you will not fight for the right when you can easily win without bloodshed; if you will not fight when your victory will be sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than live as slaves.” - Winston Churchill
“Actually, I am a Christian, and indeed a Roman Catholic, so that I do not expect ‘history’ to be anything but a ‘long defeat’ - though it contains (and in a legend may contain more clearly and movingly) some samples or glimpses of final victory.” - JRR Tolkien
It really does not depend on the military. It depends on control of the information flow. If the state is able to control the flow of information, we lose. If they cannot control the flow of information, we will likely win.
It will not be suburbanites with deer rifles against Marines.
It will be former Marines, hunters, firearm instructors against politicians, media figures, big city political machines, and their staffs.
It will all come down to information flow and the freedom to spread information.