I just did a search on here only using Intrade as the search and there are a few recent threads on here that have some interesting theories and discussions. Did it about an hour ago.
I was curious myself.
Two words. Obamacare ruling.
Remember, InTrade’s values are based entirely on what “shares” people are buying. Note that there was a huge spike in the Zer0’s “price” a month or so ago. My guess is people are pumping the stock so they can dump it in the next day or so before Zer0 craters at the polls. Most of the time, “crowdsourced” predictions are pretty accurate, but there’s a lot of subjective emotion around presidential candidates in general and this one in particular.
This is a gambling site and as such, US folks cannot participate.
If you have Europe and Asia speculating, I see how they get the results.
If I can legally get in on this, let me know how to do it.
I could use a few dollars.
Intrade was accurate on the 2008 presidential election and the 2010 house elections. In the latter, Intrade predicted a Republican pickup of 60 vs the actual pickup of 62. This year it’s Obama all the way again.
But of course it’s hard to judge the accuracy of a probabilistic prediction. Intrade is only giving Obama a 65% probability, so there’s still a 35% probability that he’ll lose. Roughly speaking, the probability figure means that in 100 situations “just like” the current one, the candidate with the type of evidence associated with Obama will win. The true result for 2012 is either Obama or not Obama.
The Intrade probability for Obama will continue to migrate to either 1 or 0 as we get closer to the actual results being determined (whenever that is).
I’ve just been reading some of the comments on the Intrade Obama bet. “magic kingdom”, whoever he is, rocks. The inane opposing comments indicate that it’s knuckleheads supporting the Obama side of the bet.
Does anyone know if it is allowed to “short” on intrade?
I suspect they don’t. If they did, if someone is pumping up 0bama’s odds as is strongly suspected, if shorting were allowed, smart money would take that side of the trade. That and also how delusional the Europeans are with their leftist bias.
Someone is going to have EGG on their face on Wednesday morning..did everyone forget about the Colorado study that predicted a big victory based on economic numbers that even predicted the Gore popular vote victory and the Bush EV victory in 2000?...someone is going to be very very wrong..I was just curious and was looking around and found that there were poll in HAWAII in 2004 that had Bush up and even the RCP average had Bush up..Kerry won by 10 points!