I agree with your analysis. Further to your point here:
“I cannot see him getting ALL of the college/youth vote. They are pissed off.”
I think the Democrats will have -permanently- alienated many of these young people. They are not the credulous Baby-boomer generation. They are critical thinkers almost to a fault, and the Democrats will have lost most of the smart and ambitious ones.
My neice, who just graduated law school and passed the MA and NY bar exams (Yeah for her) is working for $20 an hour as an over qualified para legal.
She was such a classic “College Student for Obama” clone last time around that it drove me nuts.
Four years later, she is volunteering for Scott Brown and joins me in hating Obama. Of course, she is still all “social justice” focused. So the transformation is not complete.
Based on that alone, I suggest that Obama will loose a significant percentage of college kids—to 26 year olds. They feel as if they were screwed.
A common phrase to her over the last six months: Welcome to my world!