Posted on 11/02/2012 3:27:27 AM PDT by Texas Critic
The 2012 election will usher in a new administration, and they will win in a landslide. While even dyed-in-the-wool Obama supporters are willing to admit that Romney will likely win 50% of the popular vote, they are just as quick to point to the 2000 election and the President’s current lead in the Electoral College. While this loyalty is commendable, the cognitive dissidence it requires is shameful. Romney will win this election in a landslide in both popular vote and Electoral College vote; with at least 54% of the popular vote and over 300 votes in the Electoral College. The reason Romney will win over 300 Electoral College votes, which is contrary to virtually all polling data, has less to do with the methodological errors in polling and more to do with the excessive amounts of available data that predict the President’s defeat. Currently there are roughly 11 swing states (NV, CO, PA, IA, FL, OH, MI, WI, NH, VA and MN). Within these swing states the really important information that needs to be looked at is the approval rating of the president as well as the enthusiasm gap of party identifiers. As of August the approval rating of the President was below 50% in all of these states. Until recently the enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats within many of the states was greater than 10%. Generally the approval rating of a President within a state is a good indicator of what the final tally will be at the end of the day. There have been a few exceptions, but there are always exceptions, and when the disapproval rating is almost identical there are no exceptions. The enthusiasm gap has recently closed in many of these states, but a 10% - 15% jump in enthusiasm with virtually no external justification is suspect. Even if taken to be true, does not change the President’s approval rating and also stands in contrast to the groundwork already done in the months leading up to the election by the enthusiastic Republican supporters. This enthusiasm gap almost always mirrors the vote of so-called undecided voters. That is logical. If you are an undecided voter then you are more likely to support who your neighbor or friends are most excited about. An undecided voter who participates does so because someone takes the time to project their own excitement and conviction on them. In the end Romney will win NV, CO, OH, VA , PA, IA, FL, and WI. Of these states only CO has a Democratic governor, and in this case that won’t make a difference. The great thing about Romney having the potential to win by such a large margin is that the potential positive press President Obama is attempting to acquire from Hurricane Sandy will have a minimal effect on the final tally. In other words, if the President pushes Romney from the 317 or so and pushes Romney down to 297, it is no less of a landslide and a mandate on the policies of the extreme left.
I still think it will come down to Colorado. I have said that for months. Romney will win but it will be closer than what some here think. Bottom line is that Romney wins which is what is most important. I am more worried about the Senate. I think we will gain 4 seats which is not enough to get back the Senate. We will keep the House. So we will have the Presidency and House and a closer Senate but still have Reid as Majority Leader. Romney is going to have to figure out how to get bills through with Reid....tough job but he worked with Mass which is a very liberal state.
Winning the Senate is crucial.
As long as there’s the threat that ObamaCare will be here to stay, the jobs will stay away.
High unemployment from now until Jan 20th is “Bush’s fault”.
The unemployment rate from Jan 20th will be “Romney’s fault” as the narrative will go for the next 4 years.
Politically (I stress politically) it would be better if Obama wins if we do not gain control of the Senate.
Unfortunately this election is not just about Republicans and democrats. It’s about America. Obama needs to go.
If Romney wins and Harry Reid is still in control of the Senate, I don’t see much economic improvement on the way anytime soon and we know who will be blamed for that.
We need to win the Senate.
Agree about winning the senate. I think it will come down to Todd Akin/Missouri and Scott Brown/Massachusetts. If they win then we (Republicans) will probably gain the senate. Gingrich talks like Akin will win. However, haven’t heard much about Scott. Anybody got good G2 on him?
And what happens sometime down the pike if there’s a democrat Senator from NJ who has to step down for any wrong doing such as hookers in the Domincan republic.
Who is in charge of choosing his replacement?
Todd Akin/Missouri and Scott Brown/Massachusetts
I wonder where they are in the polls
So who’s ready with this cycles “Sore Loserman?” I’m not smart enough to think of one, not yet anyway.
The true nightmare scenario is a close EC win for Romney regardless of the PV. If that happens expect a full on push from the MSNBC types to flip some of the electors for the “good of the country.” We obviously aren’t smart enough to make the right choice ourselves.
We are going to take the Senate.
Where do you guys come up this stuff?
President’s current lead in the Electoral College—and what is this assessment based on? media polls?
Todd Akin is statistically tied with McCaskill, but down a percentage, or two. It’ll come down to voter turnout here in Missouri.
As for Scott Brown, He’s was trailing Fauxcahontas. That’s Massachusetts for ya’...
Cheers
Sorry for the bad grammar, this morning. I just woke up and am still waiting for the coffee to brew. Until I get that first cup, my proofreading skills are zilch!
Cheers!
Thanks, I like the “Fauxcahontis”! Yah, don’t know what’s in their water.
Cognitive dissidence dissonance
Why is a gain of four senate seats, with Romney winning, not enough to take back the senate?
I’m not sure why he said that, but possibly because, if we only have a lead of 1-2 seats, the Dems will appeal to the “moderate” Republicans to switch sides or go independent, in order to keep things “fair” and stop the evil Conservatives from controlling all 3 branches of government. That’s their usual game plan.
There’s a chance with McMahon in CT as well.
Well, I googled your question. I couldn’t find an extensive answer but it appears the governor is empowered to call a special election “if he wants to” . I took this to mean the governor could also leave the seat vacant if he/she so chose to do so. But, not sure. Perhaps if the deposed senator was nearing the end of his/her term maybe that would be the logical choice. But, as I said, couldn’t find a definitive answer on this.
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