Were the polls right in WI recall election---a nationalized election? Or in 1994? Or in 2012 for that matter? No. Polls, especially at the state level, can be really bad. Rasmussen is probably the best only because he polls over a three night period, even at the state level. He has OH a tie, and has had it a tie for two of this last three polling sessions.
Two others, Suffolk and Gravis have had it a tie and a little known third says Romney is up two.
You can place your trust in whatever you want. Just remember, polls are inexact pseudo recordings of what people say they will do in the future. Remember Dr. House. Everybody lies.
Absentee and early voting statistics are PAST events that we can record somewhat scientifically. Certainly we can count. Hard for those numbers to lie. Possible, but very hard. And so far the numbers suggest that any D+ anything sample is just wrong.
I asked Dean Chambers of Q Star Polling (not one of those mentioned above---BTW, he also has Romney up two)---why the discrepancy. His answer was that first it's more obvious to jimmy a national poll cause everyone pays attention in all states, and second, EVERYONE knows that once they have Romney up in OH solidly, it's over. Who needs pollsters anymore?
Thanks
Dean Chambers is exactly right. Tight polls means we are still tuning in.