You are not going to have a solid 5% lead in the national election and lose Ohio.
That is a fact.
I'd tend to agree with you. My hunch is that since these polling operations got the election wrong last time around because of the early vote, they are overcompensating this go round.
There is a definite oversampling of those who claim to have voted already as opposed to the percentage that have voted already. And that subgroup that allegedly is breaking 60/40 Obama is too statistically insignificant at the end of the day. Ohio has generally been within a few points of the national result. I'd be shocked if it wasn't there at the end of the day. It can happen, but is very unlikely.