Early voting statistics (NC, OH, IA and others)

gmu/spreadsheet/early statistics ^ | 10/2/12 | me

[Ravi]

above

[Ravi]

NC: Absentee ballot requests-102,000 repubs 53% dems 26%

Returned ballots-16,400 repubs 51.5% dems 29.6%

Ohio: Cuyahoga/Hamilton updates this am-

Cuyahoga: 175,600 total requests thus far (94,700 dems, 40,800 repubs) 2008: 231,500 total requests (120,000 dems, 35,000 repubs)

Repubs in cuyahoga already up 6,000 requests over 2008 for all of 2008 and fair amount I believe true indies in cuyahoga turning in ballot requests - trend is favorable here (dems have 54,000 overvote so far). Cuyahoga repubs may be key going forward.

Hamilton: 67,500 requests so far (19,600 repubs, 10,500 dems); margin is now over 9000 in our favor

Hamilton 2008: 103,000 total requests (23,700 repubs, 16,800 dems

We are already beating our 2008 overvote of 7000. It is now 9000 and climbing. But this county, indies will be key.

IA: Dems at 61% of absentee/early requests and Repubs at 17%. Dems always outvote us here and in 2008, we were outvoted 50% to 28%. Right now, about a 97,000 vote difference here - we will catch up here and we need to push this ratio to 44% dem and 38% repub which it was in 2010.

Interested in comments/questions/contradictions/doubts/criticism about this information.

[Don Corleone]

And yet the “Pollsters” are using the 2008 model for their calculations.

[Ravi]

I spoke too soon regarding IA. Dems now at 57.8% and dropping and Repubs at 20.3% and rising. These are requests (more pertinent than returns at this stage. A difference of about 92,500 this morning (142,864 to 50,319). It was 97,000 yesterday. Keep this up Iowa.

[God luvs America]

keep me on your list...

[Ravi]

ping. Jet can do the rest

[italianquaker]

Ping me if you can
Thnx

[No Socialist]

I hate early voting and the release of statistics. Now the dems know exactly what they have to do to make up the difference with their turnout and voting fraud.

[Batman11]

pfl

[wolfman23601]

WHat were NC’s numbers in 2008? Absentee ballots always favor republican and NC has a lot of military. This is different than the so called “early voting” so we need an apples to apples comparison.

[omega4179]

I hate early voting and the release of statistics. Now the dems know exactly what they have to do to make up the difference with their turnout and voting fraud.

+1

[pollywog]

keep me on your ping list

[sitetest]

Jet Jaguar pings to these articles? If so, please add me. Thanks.

[Ravi]

We are ahead of 2008 absentee pace not by a lot but we are ahead.

[chessplayer]

I hate early voting and the release of statistics. Now the dems know exactly what they have to do to make up the difference with their turnout and voting fraud.

---

Wait for the Oct. surprise. If the early votes are in favor of obama, the results will be announced early to discourage Republican turnout.

[Mr. Silverback]

If the trend in absentees hold on election day, NC goes for Romney easily, because Obama won by such a small margin in 2008. Thgat may be why a few weeks ago Obama’s guys quietly shifted their ad buys in NC to southern MN to hit parts of eastern Iowa.

[CPT Clay]

Got to Over Come a 54k vote deficit in Cuyahoga.

[Ravi]

Was much bigger in 08.

[sam_paine]

CPT Clay: Got to overcome a 54k vote deficit in Cuyahoga.

Ravi etal don't believe that.

They believe that Romney getting wholloped "only" 2:1 in early ballots in this particular County indicates good news for Romney winning overall.

Dubious Statistical Analysis 101

[LS]

Not if Dsdown across the board and Rs up acrowss the board everywhere else. Traditionally, Rs win if Ham and Cuyahoga offset mor or less. Look @ Summit numbers for ex. Down huge.

And, BTW, a 2:1 lead in Cuyahoga is massively down from 3:1 in 08.

[Cruising For Freedom]

Let me spell it out for you...

Democrats are heavily favored for absentee voting in Ohio. Not just “early” voting, absentee voters are heavily D as well. In 2008, Democrats had a 15% advantage in absentee voting. Today, this is 5%.

In 2008, Obama won Ohio by 4.6%. If on an apples-to-apples comparison on a heavily D-weighted subset compared to 2008, Republicans are outperforming 8% to 10% compared to 2008, then this is VERY good for Romney.

Yeah, I’d prefer that Rs lead outright, but everything right now is still looking like a big Romney victory in OH. Kindly try and pay attention rather than being a wet blanket, thank you.