Oh Lord, please let it be so.
I suspect that is close to the truth. I live in a big Yellow Dog Democrat area where Dems have a huge registration advantage and large numbers of them are in unions.
That being said, you rarely hear a good word being said about Obama, rarely see a yard sign or even a bumper sticker. I think a lot of these folks are keeping their mouths shut to keep the shop steward off their backs, but at the end of the day they are quietly gonna vote Romney.
A lot of it frankly is they feel Obama is siding with blacks against everyone else in a potential race war.
The only thing I really worry about is the website getting the math right. They are correct that Rasmussen has been consistently more accurate over the years THROUGHOUT the election. For good or ill, then simply report the data.
Ras uses primarily party affiliation polling with a huge database of about 15,000 respondents, and that gives him a 37% republican population with a 4% advantage over the democrats, so it’s approximately 37, 33, 30 (independents).
He also, I read just the other day, adjusts those numbers somewhat with data from previous elections (2010, 2008, 2006, 2004?). I haven’t found what the adjustments are, but my take is that it still results in a republican advantage.
It’s the adjustment that I worry about with the reaganite website. Perhaps he knows what it is.