2008 was an unusual year. When you combined the Bush fatigue, the disenchantment with McCain, the "historic" factor in voting for Obama, and the implosion of the economy, you ended up with a turnout model that favored the Democrats.
But, party identification with the Democrats peaked in 2008. It's been declining ever since, then shifting in favor of the Republicans -- for the first time since Rasmussen started polling back in 2004:
A lot of people thought the polls were skewed unreasonably back in 2008 toward Democrats -- and they were skewed. But, it turned out to be accurate. The party identification peaked at +10 points for the Democrats.
But now, it's +4 for the Republicans, and the poll turnout models aren't reflecting that. Back in October, 2010, it was still +3 for the Democrats, and shifted to +1 for the Republicans in November. Remember how the election turned out?
If the turnout is anything close to the party identification polls, and the independents break for Romney, then Obama doesn't have a chance.
An interesting rebalance would be simply to use a 2010 turnout model. Maybe that would exaggerate the GOP turnout and the Dem depression...but still....it would be an interesting adjustment. And obviously Romney would do quite well in that set of numbers.....
The enthusiastic conservative turnout in 2010 led to one of the greatest reversals of all time in the House — and there is no reason to think anything has changed in 2 years; in fact, the People are now desperate to get rid of this incompetent boob.