Posted on 09/13/2012 6:19:41 PM PDT by Harley
The 13 Keys to the Presidency
1. After the midterm election, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the preceding midterm election. (TRUE or FALSE)
2. The incumbent-party nominee gets at least two-thirds of the vote on the first ballot at the nominating convention. (TRUE or FALSE)
3. The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president. (TRUE or FALSE)
4. There is no third-party or independent candidacy that wins at least five percent of the vote. (TRUE or FALSE)
5. The economy is not in recession during the campaign. (TRUE or FALSE)
6. Real (constant-dollar) per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth for the preceding two terms. (TRUE or FALSE)
7. The administration achieves a major policy change during the term, on the order of the New Deal or the first-term Reagan “revolution.” (TRUE or FALSE)
8. There has been no major social unrest during the term, sufficient to cause deep concerns about the unraveling of society. (TRUE or FALSE)
9. There is no broad recognition of a scandal that directly touches the president. (TRUE or FALSE)
10. There has been no military or foreign policy failure during the term, substantial enough that it appears to undermine America’s national interests significantly or threaten its standing in the world. (TRUE or FALSE)
11. There has been a military or foreign policy success during the term substantial enough to advance America’s national interests or improve its standing in the world. (TRUE or FALSE)
12. The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or is a national hero. (TRUE or FALSE)
13. The challenger is not charismatic and is not a national hero. (TRUE or FALSE)
If six or more of these statements are false, the incumbent party loses.
as I see it now, I only see Obama with TRUE for 2, 3, and 4. That means he has 9 FALSES and will be defeated I hope.
I believe the economy is still in recession or will be again shortly, and Obama's major policy change, Obamacare, is so overwhelming that becomes a negative.
Lichtman and DeCell warned not to apply the 13 keys forcefully, it did work in revisiting elections back to 1860,
7 and 13 are true.
You might not like it, but that is how it is perceived by the opposition.
15. The media will let him get away with it.
16. The challenger will let him get away with it.
17. The public will let him get away with it either by being too stupid to notice or too apathetic to care.
I looked at 7 and thought Obamacare is their New Deal but it is unpopular. 60 % dont like it. Number 13, Romney was a national hero when he rescued the Salt Lake Olympics. Most have forgotten that though. Even if the opposition says they are true that still means Obama has 8 FALSES and should lose.
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