Rasmussen has already given Michigan and Pennsylvania to Obama.
As for Utah, Romney has their 6 EV in the bag.
In the RCP average of polls they have Wisconsin at:
Obama 48.4%
Romney 44.0%
I’m not going to totally disagree with you on Wisconsin but I think putting Paul Ryan on the ticket might give me a little more confidence that Romney could pull it off.
I see Obama winning Wisconsin by about 3-4 points. But a win is a win.
Just a reality check. Jimmah Carter was up by over 12 points at the end of September in 1980. We all know how that turned out.
5.56mm
So you have advanced training in statistic and can calculate the correct standard error for polls of different samples from different populations and know how to correct the sloppy work of RCP into something meaningful?
As for Rsmussen giving anyone any state, the don’t and the can’t. That is decided on election day.
Romney is going to win Wisconsin.
Obama 182
Romney 356
Mickey Mouse would win against Obowma.....Palin should have run.