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While I can relate to some of the points of the author, I have a much different take.

I began prepping a few months ago, when my personal circumstances changed. I began researching the various prepping outlets, websites and blogs. And at some folks' suggestion, I began looking more critically at events.

While there is a case for the sand-castle-on-the-beach analogy, with the collapse coming in waves, I suspect it is more like building a campfire. You pile tinder and kindling, maybe using a little accelerant. Then a single spark ignites the pile, and as the flames grow, you begin heaping more and bigger pieces, and watch the conflagration grow.

One example: 1914. The assassination of an obscure Archduke in Europe was the spark that ignited a decades-long buildup of diplomatic tinder, resulting in WW1.

Another case: the 1918 influenza outbreak. This was a worldwide pandemic that took two years to finally burn out, but when it started (March of '18), it was swift and fast-spreading, killing a target population in less than a month.

Another case: the panicky volatility of the stock market. The 1987 stock market crash, for one, was started by one spark, the Hong Kong market crashing, spreading worldwide over a period of five days. The 2010 "Flash Crash" shows how quickly the market can panic.

Another example: Katrina. A really good AAR on the storm and its aftermath can be found here. Points to take away include the race-motivated looting and crime; the authoritarian actions of the relief efforts; and how quickly things devolved into a SHTF scenario from a single event.

These points tell me that the kindling is ready to ignite, and it's been drenched with accelerant. We read the other day of the Italian bank that has locked out its depositors. We know of the issues with Greece and the Euro. The single spark could be anything: the acting-up promised by the Left at the RNC convention in Tampa; a natural disaster, whether storm or earthquake; the promised rioting regardless of the result of the Zimmerman Trial; or the Kenyan losing the election in November.

A fire starts with a single spark.

I agree that a single spark can ignite a tank of propane with explosive results. But one of the problems in analyzing today's world is that no one knows for sure just what will indeed result in a swift collapse. George H.W. Bush is on TV now in a show about his life. He seems an admirable man and was a good president, IMO. But he is also enormously wealthy and that separates him from the rest of us. No matter what happens economically, it will hardly inconvenience him personally. I am certain such people are uber-preppers in that sense.

We live out in the sticks and are thus far better off to survive a partial collapse than the poor bastards in cities that will become Mad Max made real. The real horror of New Orleans and Katrina was not that too many Democrats sat on their sofas and watched the water rise rather than get the hell out of town. The real horror was how fast law and order collapsed. It didn't take much. And people in the Deep Blue cesspool cities -- disarmed and totally unprepared -- will die by the millions after even a month of interruption to the lives of literal and psychic welfare they live. As they stream out of the cities, how well will you be prepared for them?

Wow. That AAR from Katrina is a great reality check and deserves highlighting. Give that a read when you get a chance, FRiend Drumbo.

http://www.frfrogspad.com/disastr.htm

I’m particularly struck by the suspicion & hostility toward the preppers from “rescue personnel” and non-prepper neighbors alike. Like crabs in a bucket, the lot of them.

While patting myself on the back for assuming an innocuous/harmless manner of moving armed in public, it’s clear that if I have to bunker in place alone, I really need to fortify the ole homeplace - sadly to protect from looters AND the supposed rescuers.