[Ben Barrack]

Alito, Kennedy, Roberts, Thomas, Scalia

Which of those five will retire between 2013-2017?

Conversely, if we nominated a strong conservative in 2016, the political climate might be such that we start seeing Judges fired.

[JSteff]

might be such that we start seeing Judges fired

Under your hypothetical situation, that might be very good indeed. But that is a huge if.

The likely hood is that Thomas, Ginsberg, or Breyer will retire. Higher chance that Roberts (who had a heart condition shortly after being sworn in) or Ginsberg will have a medical situation forcing retirement.

So the chance is that Ginsberg and Thomas will leave in the next term. Kennedy, Roberts, and Breyer are the other ones in high question.

No matter what, the bet is that there will be 2 to 3 replacements in the next term of a President. Currently the leaning is far too close that if o is reelected he will certainly get to replace 2 and possible 3. Appointment of 2 liberals would put us on a dangerous slide to the left that with their rules may make it near impossible to recover from.