FReepmail “Antoninus” to be added or removed.
Posted on 03/24/2012 9:56:44 AM PDT by Steelfish
March 22, 2012
Santorum Leads In LA
Rick Santorum is headed for a commanding win in Louisiana on Saturday. We find him with 42% to 28% for Mitt Romney, 18% for Newt Gingrich, 8% for Ron Paul, and 2% for Buddy Roemer.
It's interesting to look at these numbers in the context of last week's results in Alabama and Mississippi. Mitt Romney averaged 30% in those two contests, and that's about where he is here. Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich combined for 64% in those two contests, and they combine for a relatively similar 60% here. The big difference though is that conservative voters appears to be abandoning Gingrich for Santorum now, and that's why Louisiana is likely to be much more lopsided than either of last week's contests were. If Gingrich was completely out of the race Santorum would have a 22 point lead, 53-31, over Romney here with Paul at 11%
Santorum's entire lead in Louisiana is coming with the furthest right factions of the Republican Party. He leads Romney 50-23 with 'very conservative' voters, 44-22 with Tea Partiers, and 51-23 with Evangelicals. Santorum also appears to have the late momentum on his side. Among those who've decided who to vote for in the last few days he's at 47% to just 25% for Romney. That suggests he could end up winning by an ever wider margin than he has in this poll.
(Excerpt) Read more at publicpolicypolling.com ...
No, he plods on to a brokered convention where the delegates are up for grabs and can get one on one with the candidates.
The crucial thing is to deny RINO Romney 1144 delegates and so far that process is on track.
If Gingrich was completely out of the race Santorum would have a 22 point lead, 53-31, over Romney here with Paul at 11%
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That is nice. But Gingrich is still in the race and I would like the opportunity to vote my choice May 29th.
I don’t want Santorum or Romney. It won’t matter to me who wins the primary, if it isn’t Gingrich. I vote against Obama in that case, not for somebody.
I’m pretty sure Romney hits the delegate mark if Newt drops out. Splitting two ways instead of three ways helps Mittens the Socialist. It also allows that turd to focus all of his negative advertising on Santorum.
Prior to this year, when delegates were awarded in a winner take all fashion, Newt would really be hurting Santorum. In the current situation, I think he is helping him.
Perhaps I should look at the upcoming races and see how many are proportional vs winner take all.
FReepmail “Antoninus” to be added or removed.
Yeah right. He can't handle the candidates on on one in the Primary. What makes you think he can do anything at a convention? So far all of Newts ideas on winning have failed. See "Southern Strategy".
I don't know if you are aware of this, but to win a winner take all state, you have to win it. So far Newt has won two. How would that hurt Rick at all?
Spoil away Newt, because of the three he’s still the smartest man in the room and can get America back on the right track.
Neither one of the other two can hold a candlestick to him.
JB
Voters aren’t buying that and he breaks up a 60% gender gap with women. Newt lost all his neighboring states to GA. Wow! and is in danger of coming in last in La. What next?
Santorum sucks
Take it to the limits (like in math)
In the limit of all states being winner take all: Newt hurts Santorum by preventing him from winning in these states (possibly)
In the limit of all states where delegates are awarded proportionally, Newt helps Santorum.
If you look at the polls almost half of Newt supporters go to Romney. That would mean in the proportional states, Santorum and Romney would roughly split the delegates.
Santorum and Romney would increase their delegate count at roughly the same pace. Because Romney has a significant lead on Santorum, he will get to the number of delegates required faster than if Romney is forced to split the vote three ways.
I’m a Newt fan, but I’ll gladly support Santorum. I just don’t think it is possible for him to outright win at this point. We need to push this to a brokered convention.
Back to my original point, this hinges on how many delegates will be assigned in a winner take all vs. proportional manner. I’m pretty sure that most of the remaining delegates are parsed out in a proportional manner.
I suspect that both Newt and Santorum have performed a detailed analysis. I suspects thats why Santorum isn’t more forcefully pushing for Newt to drop out.
I suspect he may drop right before a few of the winner take all states.
Santorum’s scowl and use of his middle finger is so appropriate there.
LOL! I never noticed the middle finger pointing at the word
“Freedom”!
“More news on Gingrich being the spoiler and allowing Romney either to narrow the margin of defeat or worse, ..”
If Newt doesn’t do the right thing, and drop out, I believe he’s going to kick himself later on, as Romney has smeared Newt, as well as Rick.
I just read a Tweet by Todd Starnes saying Fox projected Santorum the winner. That didn’t take long. :)
Here are the returns from the SOS office. Santorum is well ahead so far.
http://electionresults.sos.la.gov/graphical/
Thank you. The more ahead Rick is, the better, of course.
Check Posting #16.
Anyone can see he is not doing well and I don’t think it has to do with his ideas, it has to do with media perception that he is an angry man amplified by negative advertising against him as well as hordes of dem crossover voters in an open primary.
I think it is great that Newt’s continued participation leads to a brokered convention. He will increase the chance of Romney being defeated and keep Santorum pitching for the conservative bloc.
In the primary the delegates go with the choice of the voters but at the convention they can go with their gut. The convention is free of negative ads and voters will get to see the true contrast not the media filtered one.
More importantly the convention is free of dem crossover voters.
Regardless of Newt’s odds at securing the nomination at a brokered convention, he can defeat Romney by simply endorsing Santorum and by doing so he can extract agreements that keep Santorum closer to Newt’s brand of conservatism.
The bottomline minimum will be to defeat Romney.
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