>> If it weren’t for <<
and Newt’s lack of self-discipline
and the opposition to Newt by former close colleagues like Tom Coburn, Dick Armey and Tom Delay
and that Newt — clearly one of the best-known politicians in the whole U.S.A. — ALREADY has a 60% national rate of disapproval
and that Sheldon Adelson apparently has told associates that he has written his last check for Newt’s super-pac
Looks to me as if Newt’s campaign clearly is finished. The big question remaining is whether, like Huckabee, he can suppress his personal animosity toward Romney enough that he’ll be able to acquire his own talk show on FNC!
And Santorum lacks the ability to win... He didn’t lose his home state by 18 points in 06 as a fluke.
In fact, a poll just conducted showed if he were to run again for Senate against the same opponent right now he’d LOSE by 8-10 points.
This guys a dud folks. The play book used to destroy him in ‘06 is going to work just as effectively in 12, because the man hasn’t changed one iota since then. His own sound bites will be used against him to make him look extreme, and the electorate will reject him.
Here is the truth about this election, anyone, and I do mean ANYONE who isn’t viewed as unacceptably extreme will beat Obama.. This election is going to be a referrendum on Obama. Every poll shows the electorate, by a very large majority wants this doofus gone.
So, all the Republican party has to do is put up ANYONE who is not viewed as more radical or risky than Obama and they will win. ITs a binary decision, The electorate wants to replace Obama, however they won’t replace him with someone they view as radical/risky as he is, or moreso.
Santorum’s problem is, simply this, he doesn’t have command of the english language, or the intellectual depth, to effectively defend his social conservative viewpoints without creating sound bites that make him look like an extremist. That’s it folks. Santorum’s own sound bites were used to paint him as unacceptable in PA in ‘06, very effectively and he never was able to counter it, and he got smoked by 18 points. That exact same plan of attack will be used against him this year if he is the nominee with the same outcome.
Santorum is a social conservative, but he’s not a small government fiscal conservative, however that won’t generally keep the base from voting for him. However, the sound bites he creates nearly daily when trying to articulate his social conservative viewpoints, will turn off more than enough of the 40% of the swing vote to keep Obama in power.
Yes, his social conservative views fire up the social conservatives in the base, and his issues with not being a fiscal and small government conservative are not to the point where the fiscal and small government conservatives by and large would not vote for him if he is the nominee... but the sound bites this guy creates in defending his social conservative views are going to be used to evicerate him. Just like they were in 06.
Now, understand, I am not saying Santorum is wrong for holding social conservative views, or that when you listen to his defense of them in full context that they are not logical, however, most of the electorate will never hear those full arguments, they are going to hear the sound bites that make him look and sound like a heartless monster, over and over again, in news, on You Tube Mashups, etc etc etc.
As much as the electorate wants Obama out, they will not put someone they feel is as more more dangerous in... the devil you know is better than the one you don’t. Of the 3 candidates left in the Republican Primary, Santorum is the only one who can easily be painted as radically extreme by the left, deservedly or undeservedly, and the fact they can do it with his own sound bites, and not one or two, but hundreds he’s made over the years. Santorum had no counter to it in 06 and far as I can tell has none now, nothing has changed about the guy.
Romney’s issue is will the base hold for him, if it does he’ll win. Newts issue will be convincing the 40% he’s not the monster he was spun to be nearly 20 years ago, which I suspect he will heartily do, if he can he’ll win. Santorum’s issue is overcoming his own mouth, so that the swing voters don’t view him as a monster and I don’t see any indication he’s going to be able to do it, he continually to this very day keeps creating fodder to paint him as extreme with.