Posted on 03/01/2012 4:17:46 AM PST by techno
A few hours ago I posted a piece titled Why Santorum is Toast and gave 10 reasons why I think he could be.
Now I am going to take the other side of the argument and provide 10 reasons why one shouldn't write Rick Santorum off just yet:
1)In the two month history of the GOP primaries/caucuses and taking the main states into consideration only once has any of the candidates gone two in a row:
a)Iowa (Santorum) NH (Romney)
b)NH (Romney) SC (Gingrich)
c)SC (Gingrich) Florida (Romney)
d)Florida (Romney) Nevada (Romney)
e)Nevada (Romney) Colorado (Santorum)
f)Colorado (Santorum)Arizona(Romney)
The trend is clear. No candidate appears to have momentum. In football, because of the 16 game season, coaches downplay the role of momentum from week to week. Are we seeing the same phenomenon in this contest? Up to now we are.
Having said that, Romney will still win his fair share of states on Super Tuesday but if Santorum wins the big prize of Ohio, and then Tennessee and Oklahoma and maybe one or two more states could he stop Romney's apparent surge in its tracks?
2)Santorum could still win the Washington state caucus (I did allow for that in my previous piece). Having said that PPP now tweets that "Romney now has a small lead in Washington in our first night of polling."
Still Santorum could pull it out this Saturday and that could change voter's perceptions of him on Super Tuesday if they believe some of his bleeding has been arrested.
3)Word that Santorum split the delegates in Michigan 15-15. How many soft Santorum supporters or fence sitters who were previous Santorum supporters have now shifted to lean Santorum because of that one outcome?
I would like to see a poll to what percentage of the votes in various states has been affected by this result. Certainly the news report shows Rick Santorum in a much more political favorable light than on Tuesday right after it was declared that Romney had won Michigan.
4)You believe that Santorum has bottomed out at 25% support in the Gallup DTP and what goes down must go up; in addition you believe Newt Gingrich will never spike in his support again because of previous difficulties that we all know about so that he does not tie or pass Santorum in the next 4-5 days.
5)Mitt Romney continues to screw up (eg Blunt-Rubio amendment)so that in races where Newt is not a factor Santorum rises in support compared to Mitt. What we saw in Michigan for example.
Remember we only have 5 days of active campaigning left in Super Tuesday states to the vote on Tuesday. For example in the latest Ohio poll from the University of Cincinnati, Newt is polling at 16% and Santorum at 37% and in the latest state poll in Tennessee from Middle Tennessee State University Santorum is at 40% and Newt is at 13%. Realistically what are the chances that Newt can pass Santorum and also Romney who pollsters say is in second place to win either state? And what are the chances that conservatives and evangelical Christians are going to massively move away from Santorum to Gingrich? Is Rick Santorum now that much of an anathema or pariah to GOP voters, especially conservatives, especially after he split the delegates with Romney in Michigan?
Obviously from his current runner-up position, Romney could pull the upset in Tennessee and carpet-bomb Santorum to hell in Ohio, but he only has five days to do so while he had 3 weeks to do so in Michigan and Arizona.
And the percentage of evangelical voters in both Ohio and Tennessee are higher than they are in Michigan.
6)Santorum just released a statement he raised $9m in February. The chances that he can stop his previous bleeding on Super Tuesday just went up appreciably. He can now fight a decent air war with Romney in Ohio and again Romney only has 5 days to dent Santorum's armor in Ohio.
From the Hill:
"The numbers indicate he (Santorum) could be close to achieving financial parity with Mitt Romney, who was down to less than $8 million cash on hand at the beginning of January and has also spent heavily this month."
"Romney's biggest advantage in the race was his large war chest, but he gave a hint Tuesday night that fundraising might become a priority."
In war as in politics sometimes victories can be Pyrrhic victories. Could Michigan be considered that for Mitt Romney?
7)News that Rick Santorum is well-organized on the ground in Georgia--according to thestreet.com has 1900 volunteers
8)Voters in Ohio, Oklahoma and Tennessee don't really care about what happened in Michigan and Arizona and do not see Romney any differently than they saw him before he won Michigan and Arizona. They have tunnel vision. This is entirely a new game in a new stadium using football parlance. A follow-up on #1.
9)Rick Santorum is able to still win over conservative voters in these three states despite people like me writing him off in a previous post. He could prove me wrong, as Tim Tebow proved the critics wrong when he propelled the Denver Broncos over the Pittsburgh Steelers in the playoffs.
I still think many Republicans consider Santorum an anathema and an object of scorn. But perhaps their numbers are exaggerated and perhaps conservatives are not as quick to abandon ship as I think.
10)Weather may affect turnout. Santorum did win the vote on election day in Michigan. He can hang his hat on that. He lost overall due to Romney's overwhelming margin in absentee ballots submitted prior to voting day.
I may have sounded like I have dismissed Santorum's chances on Super Tuesday but I do know one thing, if the weather is God-awful his supporters, regardless of how many there are, will show up at the polls. Romney supporters and Gingrich supporters I'm not so sure if they can match their intensity.
In addition if the polls on the weekend in Ohio, Tennessee and Oklahoma still show Gingrich trailing Santorum badly, will we see the same thing that happened in Michigan happen here, where Gingrich supporters cross over and vote for Santorum to stop Romney?
Yes, I provided ten reasons why Rick Santorum could be considered toast. Well you now see ten other reasons why he could survive Super Tuesday and regain his mojo.
In other words the narrative could go either way.
Hint: Watch the national 5 day Gallup DTP over the next 5 days to see if Santorum continues to sink further into the abyss and Gingrich continues to climb out of his. I think that will give you a pretty good indication which narrative is more likely to be the most accurate.
And also watch what kind of lead Romney is able to enjoy over Santorum over the next five days. The lead is now 8 points. if Mitt can stretch his margin from anywhere to 12-18 points you can start his coronation.
Uh-oh!!!
Santorum Won More Michigan Delegates
The Moderate Voice ^ | February 29th, 2012 | Tony Campbell
According to the MSM, and most people who blindly follow their reports, Mitt Romney won the Michigan primary last night by about 3 points, 41 to 38. However, like the Electoral College, the point of the contest is not to win the popular vote (Gore – 2000) but to win more delegates per state based on the apportionment of those delegates.
Michigan’s primary delegate system allows for a set number of delegates to be won by state wide popular vote and the rest to be evenly distributed by Congressional districts. When you consider the facts of the contest, and the outcome of the voting pattern of the Congressional districts, Rick Santorum won more delegates by a count of 17 to 13 for Romney.
No spin; just the facts.
Now Tony Campbell of The Moderate Voice is claiming Santorum won 17 delegates to only 13 for Romney.
http://themoderatevoice.com/140053/santorum-won-more-michigan-delegates/
Michigan is a tie delegate count. Delegates are awarded by congressional district with two at large. Both won 7 districts each and Romney didn’t reach the threshold to take both at large delegates.
“I still think many Republicans consider Santorum an anathema and an object of scorn.”
Nope, just the FEW with an agenda.
AND of course, the Rombots who think Romney is a future god of some nutty planet or something. Catholics need not apply.
Let’s all cheer for Sanctomonium!
Which MI CD flipped. There was a couple close.
LOL
Santorum is Milk Toast... that’s just what he is. Its why he lost PA by 17 points and its why he, sadly, will have no chance at a win at the national level.
I’ll vote for the nominee, but I don’t see Santorum having any chance of winning a national election.
It appears to be CD 13.
Probably a couple suburbs of Detroit. Wayne County probably.
If so whomever GOTV for that district need a promotion.
Something is wrong with my Math. Anyone on here actually lives in MI.
We keep hearing MI had 7 CDs that went for Mittens and 7 CDs that went for Santorum none pending. So they split the Delegates Mittens(7*2)+ 1 at large and Santorum(7*2)+ 1 at large. But I am counting 15 CDs.
Is it 14 or 15?
However based on
http://miboecfr.nictusa.com/election/results/12PPR/25.HTM
Prelim as of February 29, 2012 @ 9:11:39 am
1.2.3.5.6 clearly went for Santorum thats 5
7.8.9.10.11.12.13.15 went for Mittens thats 8
4.14 are real real close. thats 2
“Milk toast”
Precisely. If Wittle Wicky is the nominee, I just hold my nose (again) and vote for him. But I don’t think he would make a better president than Romney. At least Romney has been around the block a few times. I’m not sure Wittle Wicky is even potty trained.
As a PA resident who watched Santorum lose in 06 first hand, it has always been obvious he’s not viable in a national campaign for a lot of reasons, and I’ve tried to let others know it, but most just ignore it or call me foolish.
All I can say to them today, is how do you feel about Santorum calling DEMOCRATS to try to get them to show up and vote in the Republican primary???? I know Michigan has an open primary, which I think is rediculous on its face, but really, how do you feel that your principled guy is going to court the opposition to try to get a win?? This is nothing new for Santorum over his career and par for the course.
I probably could live with Santorum as president, but I know he won’t win the national election. He’ll be painted as an extremists with his own words and be routed, just like he was in ‘06.
You must be a liberal.
Now that is silly. I feel the same way as HamiltonJoy, and I am as conservative as it gets. Calling people names does not help win them over.
You must be a liberal.
and a troll.
Godless Liberal
What concerns me is how the media will report this turnaround for Santorum...or not.
Perception is important, especially to uninformed voters ahead of these key primaries.
Mittens and Mrs. Mittens were featured on the front of the Milwaukee Journal yesterday. .. waving and looking like they were being coronated for King and Queen of the world.
Headline; “ROMNEY REGAINS STRIDE WITH TWO PRIMARY VICTORIES”.
Okay so headline tomorrow will be “NOT SO FAST. SANTORUM WINS DELEGATE COUNT IN MICHIGAN”?
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