Delegate Math: Every Contest Projected to the State Convention

Google Docs ^ | 02-18-2012 | parksstp

[BfloGuy]

It all depends on what liberal NYC does.

Unfortunately, that is always the case.

[parksstp]

lol @ WTH with the loophole primaries? (PA and IL)

EXACTLY!

Actually, I think IL and PA mean well. Whereas some of the states allocate evenly across CD’s, they try to reward the CD’s in their state that has been more loyal to Republicans by giving them a delegate or two. But like TN they have this Executive Committee that allocates delegates based on what the committee wants. Logically, you would assume them to follow the vote of the state, but who knows?

I explained the NY allocation from above.

MD is winner take all by CD and +10 statewide bonus. I believe that Newt or Santorum will be able to either win MD-1, which is the Eastern Shore, Cecil and Harford County and/or MD-6 which is Frederick, Hagerstown, Cumberland out west. Check with another MD Freeper, I think they would also like either’s chances. It’s only 6 delegates, but they do add up.

130 is too low for Santorum. If that’s all you have him getting, then a lot of your unbound delegates should be in the Newt column. At 130, Newt would have around 960-970 delegates going into the convention. At convention time, we’ll know who’s where and I still think the Newt/Santorum combo will make up more delegates than Romney or Romney/Paul.

[detective]

This is an excellent jobs. Thanks for your efforts. It clarifies many the things we hear from the MSM and puts the situation in perspective.

While I think your analysis is excellent overall I think you may have slightly overestimated Romney. New York and Texas seems a bit high as well as a few others. I also think you may have slightly underestimated Santorum. Unless his campaign falls apart he should do slightly better than your projections. Newt is very hard to predict. I don't know how long his latest campaign funds will last or if he can go back to his Las Vegas donor for more. Ron Paul seems overestimated, but with his weird followers it is hard to tell.

It seems the most likely case is a deal between two of Santorum, Romney and Gingrich. Perhaps there will be a deal that involves all three.

The big question is will Newt's supporters stick with him if he guarantees Romney the nomination. If they won't Newt will have to deal with Santorum.