Delegate Math: Every Contest Projected to the State Convention

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AhY4oeNgAv_ldElMZmVQSnhTQ09VWDMzLThTTC1sVFE

Bottom Line Numbers or Projection of the Number of Delegates prior to the RNC Convention based on the rules of all State Primary/Caucus contests:

Based on Current polling and projections, I’ve reviewed every state’s primary rules and simulated each contest based upon them. From what I have determined, it is highly likely that NO candidate will get to 1,144 by convention time unless something drastically happens (someone drops out, scandal, etc)

For Mitt Romney, even if all the remaining unbound/uncommitted Superdelegates endorse him, he will still fall about 54 delegates short of the required 1,144 for clinching the nomination.

Rick Santorum actually has a better shot at getting to 1,144. If Gingrich stays in, based on proportional rules, they will have 1,102 delegates between them. If Gingrich drops out, however, those delegates from the proportional contest most likely go to Santorum, whom if he can eclipse 50% in some state primaries and caucuses where majority results in WTA or a significant bonus, it will reduce Romney’s delegate totals. Santorum, then, would need about a third of the uncommitted vote to secure the nomination, which if they follow the vote of their respective state’s primary/caucus, is not unlikely. See http://www.thegreenpapers.com for explanation of the Caucus and primary rules.

In this scenario of a deadlocked convention, we have the following possibilities:

Option 1 – Offer the VP slot to Santorum or Gingrich. (Both however are likely to decline, but if Gingrich stays in, his total alone while small would be enough to push Romney over the 1,144 votes. There is really no incentive for either Gingrich or Santorum to do this because with a higher combined delegate total, they can hold out or make a better deal.

Option 2 – Offer the VP slot to Rand Paul (This would be to make a deal for Paul’s 95 delegates. However, based on projections, it appears Paul’s delegate total won’t be enough alone to push Romney over the top. Romney would need to convince another 3rd of the remaining Superdelegates to jump on board.

Option 3 – Call the former Gov of Alaska and ask her to help him be more conservative by adding her to the VP ticket (this will happen when I cash in that multi-million Powerball ticket)

Option 1 – Accept a VP slot from either Mitt Romney or Newt Gingrich. (Unlikely, and would damage reputation as strong conservative)

Option 2 – Offer VP slot to Newt Gingrich (Remote possibility, but not out of the realm)

Option 3 – Call the former Gov of Alaska and ask her to join the ticket (Remote possibility, but not out of the realm)

Option 4 – Meet with Gingrich and determine either an acceptable running mate or a completely new ticket made up of two different individuals that both can accept (Something along the lines of this. Combined, they’ll have almost a near majority of the delegates, so if some deal can be made, it will be from these two)

Option 5 – Drop out at the convention and endorse Newt (yeah, this is what you do when you are projected to be about 600 delegates ahead. Not happening)

Option 1 – Accept a VP slot from either Mitt Romney or Rick Santorum. (Tempting, not sure he wants to be second fiddle. With Romney, Gingrich might reason he can keep an eye on him, or with Santorum, Gingrich might reason he can mold him into some kind of leader. It wouldn’t be out of the ordinary for the elder statesman to take a VP slot (Biden, Cheney, Benson, etc).

Option 2 – Call the former Gov of Alaska and ask her to join the ticket (ah, what everyone on the Newt side wishes would happen. Here’s the problem with that though. Will this gain any of Romney or Paul’s delegates? Or how many of the remaining uncommitted delegates? The assumption is Santorum’s delegates would bolt to Newt after the first ballot, but I’m not seeing it in the numbers Gingrich thinks. I don’t think this deal would get him to 1,144. However, see Option 3:

Option 3: Plug Palin’s name for President, join her ticket as the VP (Now this one might have some life, and as I stated it wouldn’t be out of the ordinary for the elder statesman to be on the lower end of the ticket.

Option 4: If not Palin, go find a popular VP choice and get them to endorse you, then present it at the convention. Most likely this would be Allen West, since he’s already on board, though Gingrich would like to grab Rubio.

Option 5: Offer the VP slot to Santorum (unlikely to accept since Santorum would be several hundred delegates ahead.

Option 6: Meet with Santorum and the two come up with a completely new ticket made up of two different individuals that both can agree on.

Option 7: Drop out and endrose Santorum. You've stayed in this long, why quit now?

Option 1 – Sit back and wait for the deals to come. Accept whomever has the best one. Unlikely though he will be apart of any ticket.

Option 2 – Rand – If Romney offers VP slot to Rand, decide to accept/decline it. Highly probable Paul would accept and be able to give a speech to have his delegates support Romney on the bases of Rand. Yet, Romney would still need more Superdelegates to get over the hump.

Option 3 – Take your delegates and bolt the convention. Reducing Paul’s 95 delegates, would reduce the total number of delegates from 2,192 and make the required number of delegates needed to secure the nomination at 1,097.

Option 1 – Screw the whole thing up and give us somebody nobody wants or rewrite the rules at the last minute to hand the nomination to Romney. Would you really be surprised by either method?

In theory, the only way to avoid a brokered convention is for Santorum/Gingrich to consolidate sometime during the primary season, with their pledged Superdelegates also consolidating. Doing this would give the one remaining in the race a 65-70% chance of securing the nomination by convention time.

lol @ WTH with the loophole primaries? (PA and IL)

EXACTLY!

Actually, I think IL and PA mean well. Whereas some of the states allocate evenly across CD’s, they try to reward the CD’s in their state that has been more loyal to Republicans by giving them a delegate or two. But like TN they have this Executive Committee that allocates delegates based on what the committee wants. Logically, you would assume them to follow the vote of the state, but who knows?

I explained the NY allocation from above.

MD is winner take all by CD and +10 statewide bonus. I believe that Newt or Santorum will be able to either win MD-1, which is the Eastern Shore, Cecil and Harford County and/or MD-6 which is Frederick, Hagerstown, Cumberland out west. Check with another MD Freeper, I think they would also like either’s chances. It’s only 6 delegates, but they do add up.

130 is too low for Santorum. If that’s all you have him getting, then a lot of your unbound delegates should be in the Newt column. At 130, Newt would have around 960-970 delegates going into the convention. At convention time, we’ll know who’s where and I still think the Newt/Santorum combo will make up more delegates than Romney or Romney/Paul.

This is an excellent jobs. Thanks for your efforts. It clarifies many the things we hear from the MSM and puts the situation in perspective.

While I think your analysis is excellent overall I think you may have slightly overestimated Romney. New York and Texas seems a bit high as well as a few others. I also think you may have slightly underestimated Santorum. Unless his campaign falls apart he should do slightly better than your projections. Newt is very hard to predict. I don't know how long his latest campaign funds will last or if he can go back to his Las Vegas donor for more. Ron Paul seems overestimated, but with his weird followers it is hard to tell.

It seems the most likely case is a deal between two of Santorum, Romney and Gingrich. Perhaps there will be a deal that involves all three.

The big question is will Newt's supporters stick with him if he guarantees Romney the nomination. If they won't Newt will have to deal with Santorum.

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