Obama, Romney, Santorum, Gingrich: The current lay of the land; the prospects for the future

Rick Santorum leads Mitt Romney in the South 32% to 30% with Newt Gingrich at 17%. It is thought by many pundits that the South is Gingrich's stronghold or strong suit. If these numbers are accurate, Super Tuesday may not go the way Gingrich wants it to go. There is a good chance Newt could lose both Tennessee and Oklahoma. If he lost his home state of Georgia as well, that would spell disaster.

These folks make up roughly 4 in 10 voters in the entire electorate. It is projected by Ruy Teixiera, a Democratic polling analyst that for Obama to win re-election,he cannot lose this constituency by more than 23 points, as long he gets at least 75% of the non-white vote. The Democrats lost it by 30 points to the GOP (63 to 33) in 2010. 12% in the poll are undecided. Let's say there is a 1/3 to 2/3 split in them--that would give Obama 37% of the vote (he got 40% in 2008) and the GOP nominee 63% of the vote which would give the GOP nominee a narrow victory.

Although those in the South give Obama an overall 46/43 approval/disapproval number, white southerners only give Obama a 30/58 approval/disapproval rating. This is the greatest disparity in any region between whites and non whites. What this tells me is that polls results can be manipulated a lot in the South if a pollster chooses to vastly oversample minority voters as opposed to white voters.

4) American Research Group conducted two polls in Michigan over a 4-5 period which showed Newt Gingrich losing 11 points in support between polls (21% to 10%). I can't remember a more steep dropoff in support over such a short period of time by the same pollster in a non-scandal environment. You can look at it from two points of view: that Newt's supporters have soured on his prospects or that a lot of his supporters intend to vote strategically in Michigan to stop Mitt Romney by voting for Rick Santorum. That begs the question. Is this phenomenon happening in any other states, especially in the South?

5)The Rasmussen poll showing Rick Santorum ahead by 18 points in Ohio over Mitt Romney

Two weeks ago Public Policy Polling had the race at 26% for Gingrich, 25% for Romney and 22% for Santorum. With the release of the Rasmussen poll Santorum has shot up 20 points, Gingrich has fallen back 13 points and Romney has basically stayed even, only down 1 point.

If you analyze poll after poll whether it be national or state polls, you will notice something really consistent, which is the mediocre consistency of Mitt Romney's polling numbers. Yes consistency is admirable, but when that abiding consistency cannot manufacture needed momentum when you need it to prevail, what this tells me that your appeal is limited or clearly defined, that you have little room for growth, that you don't have a second gear or the chances of you suddenly breaking out and taking the world by storm are not very good.

6) The most recent Gallup weekly summary of the previous week's daily tracking polls show only 6% of conservative Republicans approve of Obama while 21% of liberal/moderate Republicans currently do, resulting in 10% of all Republicans now approving of Obama's job performance. These numbers were also confirmed by PEW Research in its latest monthly poll.

A week ago or so World Net Daily claimed they had information that 20% of Republicans were now considering voting for or prepared to vote for Obama in 2012. There is no way that is remotely possible given these poll numbers. Conservatives make up ~70% of the Republican party. The numbers simply don't add up. In addition you can go back to the 1970's and analyze presidential elections and you will find that consistently 8-10% of Republicans vote for the Democratic candidate. No big deal--it's expected. So there is no way 20% of Republicans are going to vote for Obama, especially when the President is consistently polling in the mid to high 40's range in his overall approval.

7)The weekly Daily Kos poll (conducted by PPP) showed two key findings: A drop in conservative approval for Obama from 16% to 12% and a significant falloff in support from union household members from 63% to 56%.

In 2008, President Obama received 20% of the conservative vote, which Joel Mowbray a political analyst concluded was the main reason he won the election (Kerry got 14% in 2004). In 2010, the Democrats got only 13% of the conservative vote; in addition the conservative share of the overall electorate went up from 34% in 2008 to 42% at the midterm election.

Conclusion: If Obama once again reaches 20% of the conservative vote and low conservative turnout duplicates what happened in 2008, he will most certainly win re-election. But if the conservative turnout is as buoyant as it was two years ago and Obama only gets roughly 13%-14% of the conservative vote he will be toast.

Is there any wonder the WH should be terrified at the prospects of a Rick Santorum nomination, given the plan along by the Democrats was to face moderate Mitt Romney in the fall, with the expectation he would depress conservative turnout in swing states as McCain did in 2008?

As for the steep decline in support among union households, this again could be the white working class expressing disapproval with Obama's economic policies but it also could be Hispanic voters sharing in that sentiment. In other words dissatisfaction with Obama by working people is just not limited to white voters. An Hispanic out of work can be just as angry as white person out of work.

8)The weekly Econ/yougov poll revealed that only 14% of respondents (16% the week before)would commend or single out Obama for being a religious person. Knowing this poll result you would think that Obama would not particularly want to pick a fight with the Catholic church and beard the lion in his den.

And really has American society fallen so far into a secular hellhole that it would re-elect a man who 86% of voters either who don't think he is religious or can't offer an opinion on the subject because he has not left that impression on them while President.

9)From Harris interactive: In swing states* if the election were held today only 43% feel it is at least somewhat likely they would vote to re-elect Obama, while 51% feel it is at least somewhat unlikely they would vote for him. That includes 34% in swing states who say they are VERY LIKELY to vote for the President and 45% who say they are VERY UNLIKELY to vote for Obama.

Don't forget ultimately a presidential re-election campaign is a referendum on the job performance of the Commander-in-Chief, the incumbent. If only 43% of voters in swing states want to see Obama get a second term, this tells me the GOP has an excellent chance of winning back these swing states in 2012 and ultimately prevailing.

*Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia

10) And finally although this poll result was from two weeks ago, this particular result is emblematic of what has been happening over the past two years.

Since Obamacare was passed by the House on March 21, 2010, this poll has been conducted. Right after the midterm election it was 55/40 for repeal. Not much has changed apparently.

There is a key point to all of this: In the 2010 midterms the GOP got 51.6% of vote with the Democrats getting 44.8% of the vote. You can see compared to the above poll result there was a 3-5 point differential in play here between the poll and the actual vote.

Projecting ahead I could now envision a result something like 49% for the GOP nominee and 46% for Obama but if the split became 53/42 then it could be a 48/47 contest. In other words the issue of Obamacare keeps the race close.

And with an incumbent President that is about what any opponent can hope for-to keep it close to near the end, before finding your second gear or second wind and sprinting to the finish line and hopefully win narrowly.

But without Obamacare on the table, all bets are off. A close race could tip to Obama's advantage without our ability to use our ace in the hole against him to polarize the vote. And with Mitt Romney as the GOP nominee that could certainly happen because Obamacare would certainly be sent to the backburner by Romney and the media due to charges of hypocrisy leveled against the former Governor of Massachusetts.

But with Rick Santorum at the helm, I believe he would keep the race at least close as he would hammer Obama on the deficiencies and unfairness of Obamacare at every opportunity. Would he eventually prevail? Who knows? That's why they play the game.

The funds raised in these FReepathons go to pay our current quarter expenses. But we're also going to try to replace some of our older servers and failing equipment this year so we're going to add a little extra to our FReepathon goals. John is estimating ten to fifteen thousand to do this and I'd like to get it all in place and working before the election cycle is fully heated up, so we'll try to bring in a little extra now, if we can, and the rest next quarter.

Jim Robinson

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2 posted on 02/17/2012 9:46:32 PM PST by onyx (SUPPORT FREE REPUBLIC, DONATE MONTHLY. If you want on Sarah Palin's Ping List, let me know.)

Look at 2010, the upper Midwest has gone totally red in its bodies.

MI, WI, OH, IN, are going to decide on how bad the Kenyan is tossed in the Electoral College.

It really does not matter who wins the GOP nomination, all poltics are local.

I have not heard that kind of optimism for some time.

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