[ngat]

“The media is pretending that the size of the victory is a Mitt coronation moment.”

Yes, Charlie Rose just had his little coronation interview with Mitt on CBS this morning. CBS is reporting the size of the “victory” to be 14% now. Last night it was 20% on some outlets to start, dropped, and waound up at 15%. After Iowa and the MSM falsely reported a Romney victory only to find out weeks later it was a Romney loss, who knows what the final percentage above Gingrich numbers will be? 13%, 12%, 11.5%? They don’t even report this was a plurality in which Romney did not even get a majority! What might happen in a runoff? I bet Gingrich would win - maybe even in Florida! Why? Because I don’t think Romney could spend 7 or 8 times as much as Gingrich on negative advertising in a runoff (maybe he could), but Gingrich, Santorum, and Paul voters are much more motivated, and in in a low-turnout election this is the difference. Every Santorum and Paul voter I talk to, when forced to make a choice, breaks against Romney. This nonsense is damaging the credibilty of the entire system.

All this election proved is that Romney can win a plurality of votes in a four-way contest in a heavily urbanized state whose population includes lot of retirees and immigrants from other parts of the country and world.

[Wallace T.]

Note that Gingrich won the northern counties and most of the Panhandle, aka South Georgia and Lower Alabama. He also came within a few hundred votes of winning Jacksonville (Duval County), the most Southern-oriented of Florida's metro areas. It is obvious that Romney has a Southern problem. Romney did very well in southeast Florida, with its concentration of retired Northeasterners, and southwest Florida, with its concentration of retired Midwesterners. He won 61% of the vote in Miami-Dade County and 51% of the vote in Sarasota County. Take away the 20%+ voting margins in the retirement oriented counties, and Romney's victory is less substantial.

Romney's advantage is his funding power, second only to Obama. Gingrich is weak financially, but Santorum is even weaker. Paul manages money well and can last very long given his strategy to work on caucus states and states with libertarian leanings, like New Hampshire or Nevada. Santorum and, surprisingly, Paul did better in the Southern-oriented, evangelical counties of northern Florida. But Santorum was a weak third and is competing for the same pool of voters as is Gingrich. Without another Iowa-type victory, Santorum will have to shut down for lack of funding.

For Gingrich to remain competitive, he will need a strong financial boost from Sheldon Adelson or another financial angel.