I'm trying to remember what exactly my friend said. I think he mentioned that, say, one of the statistics was that college educated Muslim women have a low fertility rate. Which would make you say, "yeah, but does it really matter? How many Muslim women are college educated anyway?"
I'll take your word, though. I may have to order the book or check it out of the library.
As for you, allmendream, it's true that America had vast tracts of land to conquer. What if I showed you that Britain and Germany also had high birth rates, since they were not expanding geographically? I bet they had relatively high birth rates, but it's surprisingly difficult to find any historical data for them. I'll keep searching.
What exactly do you define as a reasonable birth rate? In 1960, American women had a fertility rate of around 3.5 and black women around 4.5. Our borders were no longer expanding at that point and infant mortality was also not the problem it once was.
And let me add that that is besides the point. No one here has been arguing for massive birth rates. We're just arguing that the low birth rates will create significant problems. That's what you seem to object to.
I object to the notion that the greatest threat humanity faces is lack of fecundity.
Humans have problems - but fecundity is not one of them.
Looking at the graph of human population over the last few thousand years it seems obvious that we are headed up for 8 billion a lot faster than we are headed down to 6 billion.
I also don’t think overpopulation is that big of a problem - IF you have a corresponding change in technology that makes us all live in health and comfort. I think the Earth could easily support 14 billion people - but not with present day technology.
People see a trend and then say “What if...... what if the trend continued unabated for the next forty years?”
The recent decrease in birth rates from historic highs will most likely be a dip at best that will slow but never decrease our rapid climb to 8 billion people.
The sky is not falling. In forty years the sky will almost certainly not fall. When children are needed women can produce them at a rate of 7 per woman.
One thing I think we can all count on is human beings fornicating and producing children when they want them.
In forty years if more children are needed I am sure there will be volunteers to make them.
Until then we are at 7 billion and rapidly approaching 8.
Now it seems that those high birth rates have come down some. The trend may or may not continue.
As to the ‘demise of the west’ because people in Europe seem too preoccupied to reproduce at replacement rates - that, it seems to me, is more of a cultural/national argument than an economic one.
The surplus population of the third world seems ready to replace any shortfall in Europe - and from having lived there long ago - it seems a good % of the workforce is from there.