So, has Santorum done the full groundpounding get-out-the-vote monty in NH and the other “big” states? If he didn’t, his vote tally means nothing because no one outside Iowa will know anything about him.
It’s really hard to “see” how the election is trending from a board like this. Many people have personal investments in one candidate or another, so every victory by that candidate is the moment when that candidate locked up the nomination, and every defeat is “just a flesh wound”. While that kind of support is great for the candidate and their campaign, it really clouds the actual state of the field.
Forecasting the potential outcomes of any election is important to the US, but it is especially important with this election. The economy is barely functioning, US debt is now more than the total GDP of the country, the security apparatus of the government is more intrusive than ever, and the current president has de facto nationalized several major sectors of the economy. Economic progress this year is going to mirror very closely the fortunes of the various candidates. If Obama’s star seems ascendant, businesses will falter further and spending will collapse, in anticipation of another 4 disastrous years under his administration. If the republican candidate seems to be the front-runner, things will get marginally better, as businesses’ optimism prepares them for the assumed-inevitable improvement in the US business climate following a republican victory.
The official vote count was just announced by the Head of the Pub committee in Iowa and Romney won by 8 votes. Geez, what a squeeker! The official count was agreed to by both parties (Romney/Santorum). So, that’s it folks. You can all go to sleep now.