One early warning marker of a new mischief virus at work would be a sudden alarming increase of hospitalized diabetics(especialy type one as well as heavily insulin dependant type twos) going into supra hyperglycemia and diabetic ketoacidosis.
When a diabetic who has been scrupulous about maintaining his insulin levels and sugar levels finds that his levels have gone out of control; we often suspect sepsis or viral infection because of the rise of his natural glucocortical steroid levels. Stress on the immune system gives rise to increased available glucose; but without the means to process the extra available glucose(producing extra insulin when needed), a diabetic may find himself in serious difficulty.
I know we’ve had a serious influx of DKA patients where we are over a couple of days...almost like a town convention of diabetics. Some have reported recent cold or flu symptoms and i know a flu/ “pro longed cold or respiratory illness” has been making the rounds recently.
Thusly, in a future respiratory HIV plague scenario, the canaries in the coal mine may very well be suddenly massive numbers of hyperglycemic diabetics(even those with historically mild cases of DM 1 or 2) being hospitalized first even before the flu really takes hold of them!
You and Ma would have a great conversation. It is good to hear your opinion. What I will do is post what I wrote from my notes on her opinion of the “canary in the coal mine”
Remember that MA is very religious and believes these events are unfolding step by step as part of a natural evolutionary process. She points out that all species are subject to cycles of sustained growth and sudden calamity.
Anyway ...... this is her thoughts.
MA: Yes were there to be an isolated breakout and the proper barrier nursing techniques could be initiated, then the prognosis would be for containment. But that is not to be the case.
Q: I don’t understand what you mean.
MA: There is a very unusual phenomena in the world of Virology called “coincidental spontaneous mutation”. We use this term to describe an event where the same mutation breaks out in multiple locations in the same time frame.
The causality of this event is highly debated but the phenomena is well documented.
Q: Recently
MA: Very recently. In 2009 there was an event that occurred concerning the H1N1 novel virus that should have sounded the alarm bells for all those who are watching these pandemics.
There was a mutation of the H1N1 virus that occurred in Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, Ukraine, and the United States. The mutation is called H1N1/D225G.
This mutation directly attacks the lungs, causing swelling and hemorrhage. Symptoms include progressive over 38C temperatures, breathing difficulty, a dry cough producing blood, and destruction of lung tissue starting in the lower lungs. Time from onset of symptoms to death was 4-7 days.
When we performed post mortems we found the lungs were blackened, as if burnt, perhaps related to lung hemorrhage.
Both the D225G marker, a so-called ‘domain changing receptor’, and the symptoms listed above seem to link this variant to the Spanish Flu Pandemic of 1918.
The multiple coincidental spontaneous mutations were so startling that some people believed we had seen a test run of a biological agent. That was not true.
What we experienced was soon repeated again when clusters of Tamiflu resistance patients appeared in Wales and North Carolina. These patients all acquired an identical change in the H1N1 virus - yet lived a world apart.
It is not a new phenomena. There have been many reports, historically, about bugs acquiring resistance seemingly overnight. Again, the mechanism for this type of event are completely unknown to us. There are so many things that occur in our physical world that seem bewildering - yet commonplace.
That is the great joy of science, to reach into that unknown realm and search for those natural rhythms that are just beyond our understanding.
Q: I don’t know what to say. I had no idea such a thing was even possible. But it makes the hair on my neck stand up when you talk about the effects the mutation has on the lungs. Is that what happened in 1918?
MA: Well we have to be careful about overreaching but yes something very similar to this event. That bug killed the young and healthy with impunity. Once again, in a cytokine storm the more robust your immune system is - the more devastating the feedback loop.
Q: It is almost like we are, step by step, building up to your vision of the HIV mutation. All these events are so similar to what you postulate.
For the first time MA, I am a little frightened.
MA: And why is that?
Q: I suppose because before this discussion your theory seemed just too far fetched to make any sense. But when you frame the outbreak with all this in the background - it is just a bit too real for me.
I am in the position of having read your writings stretching over nearly a decade and it is impossible to forget how prescient you have been on so many issues. That worries me when your predictions begin to make not only reasonable sense but have a small ring of truth.
MA: Ring of truth?
Q: Well yes, there is something in your tale that seems, to me, believable. I am forced, for the first time, to ask myself “could it really happen?” And viewing your past history of remarkable calls in the field of Virology - I would prefer not to answer that question. It is the knowledge that I would rather avoid that question that frightens me.
MA: I can understand your concern. There is a certain rhythm to life and many times it seems to telegraph the direction that it is moving in.
We are often just passengers on this cosmic train and that knowledge can be a bit unsettling.
Let’s have a drink and take a break for a moment.
Q: She must have seen that I was not quite all there. My mind was going over this new revelation. I had no idea that organisms could change so quickly and in concert of all things. It was the piece of the puzzle that never seemed quite right.
From our first conversation I was aware that MA was awaiting a viral outbreak of a scale that would change our species. So what - I know people who believe aliens visit us from time to time. Everyone to their own.
But this outline of events is lacking the huge leap of faith that I always assumed she had made. I suppose it could be possible...
MA: Here is a fresh Crown on the rocks. I will be right back - I am making tea.
Q: I put another log on the fire and tried to gather my reporter persona. My desire to see this conversation played out in detail now appears to have gone a bridge too far. It is safe and warm to view others as odd or eccentric, all the time smugly maintaining a safe distance from the message. But I feel a bit compromised.
Q: MA, are you saying that there are to be multiple simultaneous mutations worldwide?
MA: Yes.
Q: And I assume this large scale outbreak is what overpowers the health care systems?
MA: There will never be a real opportunity for containment. This is not Hollywood. No hero will develop a magical antidote just in time to save the beautiful woman. No, this event is of such a consequence that, by the time the scale is apparent, the issue will be settled.
Because the virus is airborne the first three days of outbreaks will saturate such a large population that all the wheels will rapidly come off even the best health care systems. The first task will be to understand what is happening and it will, all to rapidly, become apparent that it is a very hot bug and that it is pandemic.
But by the time the extent of what has happened is well known - there will be no recourse.
Child, there is no recourse even now. We cannot kill this creature. We have only kept it at bay for these many years and that era of detente is rapidly ending.
Q: But MA, you make it sound so hopeless. How could you believe such a thing?
MA: There are things that I believe and things that I know. This virus and its coming change are something I know. I know in detail and specificity that defies all common understanding - yet my knowledge remains.
And now you know.
Q: I have one last question before I go, how will these folks know. Are you going to write, or will it be on the news or what?
MA: That is to be easy. All the systems are now in place. The Internet is here, the pandemic blogs are all up and watching and we only wait. It will be out of Egypt, because of the powerful infrastructure watching for H5N1 outbreaks, where most people will hear the first news. When you hear of the sudden outbreak in Egypt, leave immediately. Use only self service gas pumps, do not stop and do not have any human contact from that point on.
If you are alone, or with your family run to a refuge. Wait for it to burn out. Be patient and then patient some more. Let the darkness pass over the earth. It will be quicker than any Hollywood disaster movie could ever portray. But it will pass.
Q: Well that is pretty clear. Egypt huh?
MA: That is where you will first know.