THE COMING WAVE (An Interview With Mother Abigail)

Tokuisei.Com ^ | 12-14-11 | James Oscar

[James Oscar]

THE COMING WAVE

(An Interview With Mother Abigail)

I came in from the wilderness, a creature void of form.
"Come in," she said, "I'll give you—shelter From the storm”

-Bob Dylan-

[headsonpikes]

“This is Free Republic’s most unreadable post ever.”

It is fraught, certainly; but I found it compelling, if melodramatic, and read the whole damn thing.

It’s a hard rain’s agonna fall, alright, but seriously, Laz, would you hit Mother Abigail?

.

[James Oscar]

Thanks Laz,

My mother always said I would be a winner.

[James Oscar]

Egypt-Man, 30, hospitalized suspected bird flu H5N1 - 2 other family members similar symptoms, 1 dead - Fayoum

---

Man detained on suspicion of having bird flu

Sunday, 01/15/2012 - 15:56

Fayoum General Hospital held a young man on suspicion of having bird flu, where he showed symptoms of the chest and enter the hospital, which referred to the General Hospital to the lack of necessary equipment Chest Hospital, and was his sister had died last week with the same symptoms.

I had to. H, 30, suffered a very high temperature and flu-like symptoms and was taken to hospital in the chest, did not get him on the samples and swabs required before it is referred to the General Hospital.

Assesses the patient’s home district, next to the ashes of the hospital, and his sister were younger, and at the age of 22 years had died a week ago affected infected with the same symptoms, and remains one of his relatives suffer from the same symptoms at home.

http://www.el-balad.com/52728/ahtgaz-shab-llashtbah-fy.aspx

...Fayoum General Hospital held a young man on suspicion of having bird flu after showing symptoms of the disease, samples were taken for him to be sent to labs central Ministry of Health for analysis.

The reception hospital Fayoum General received yesterday evening the young man “on. H” (30 years) of the District of Dar ash city of Fayoum, which is suffering from high temperature and show symptoms of bird flu, and suspected of doctors in the illness, especially as it told them that his sister died last week after the appearance of the same symptoms, was detained in hospital and took him to the necessary samples and sent to labs central Ministry of Health for analysis, and confirmed as suffering from the disease or not.

http://www3.youm7.com/News.asp?NewsID=578503&SecID=296&IssueID=0

__________________
CSI:WORLD

http://pandemicinformationnews.blogspot.com/

[James Oscar]

Thank you very much for reading.

Just a couple of notes you might be interested in:

1. The “someone” is Free Rebublic’s Mother Abigail - who is arguably one of the most famous posters on the Internet due to her SARS and EBOLA predictions. The SARS threads on Free Republic were a seminal turning point in the evolution of the Internet. You may have read my article (LOL)

2. Her actual prediction is that the HIV virus is evolving - searching for a way to become more virulent and that the first indications of that successful evolution will be an outbreak of deadly cases in Egypt that are, initially, misidentified as an H5N1 outbreak.

Again thank you for reading. I have been overwhelmed by the number of hits on the Tokuisei site - it is a bit humbling.

[James Oscar]

I appreciate your reading the entire work. It was written for a web site of medical professionals and is more a thesis than easy reading - so I fully understand the difficulty in the flow.

It was a hard task - trying to accurately portray the thoughts and theories of MA (for whom I developed a great deal of affection)and make such complicated virology readable to the public.

I hope that I had some success in both goals.

[headsonpikes]

If you want more people to read it, you ought to merge the files - constantly paging is irritating, esp. with satellite download delay.

Nevertheless, I found MA’s narrative rigorously empirical, lucid and cmpelling. She is correct, I fear - a bio-variant of Niven/Pournelle’s ‘Lucifer’s Hammer’ is likely to strike at some not distant time.

Thanks for posting.

[mdmathis6]

Well clarify something for me...Are looking at increased virulence and super progressive, another words since HIV infections take time to kill once a person is infected, are we talking about a decreasing “time to death factor as well...another words the period of time from infection to demise?

[James Oscar]

Yes exactly,

MA believes that in the very near future the HIV virus, which has been continually evolving to a higher level of virulence, will develop the ability to move from lung to lung.

Once in the lung, the new HIV mutant will create a cytokine storm that will quickly overwhelm the patient and the time from infection to death will be sudden and dramatic.

The virus has now defeated all of modern medicine and can be found in every geographical region and in every culture on our little rock.

The weakness of this very diabolical bug is it's lack of an effective transmission method.

HIV is one of the most mutanagenic life forms on earth. The numbers of mutants created daily is an almost unbelievable number.

The change necessary to allow it to ride water droplets in a cough from one lung to another is really quite achievable considering the massive mutation rate.

That is why the rising virus count of patients is worrisome. The denser the infection the more likely airborne transmission might be possible.

Her fixation on the use of neuriminidase inhibitors on HIV patients with the flu is based on the known science that neuriminidase increase HIV mutation. Which in a sick patient with coughing, sneezing etc. seems, to MA, insane.

So, sorry for all the words, your summation is spot on. The method of transmission changes the long time from infection to death to something much more akin to the Spanish Flu.

[James Oscar]

I will consider offering just such a merged file. The page format was designed for the Kindle editor who is considering allowing me to publish on the Kindle format.

If she ultimately decides not to sponsor the work then I will use the Kindle self publish method, but I could easily offer from my main menu here:

http://tokuisei.angelfire.com/Home.html

a choice of Kindle-type paging or one continuous file.

Thank you very much for the feedback. It has been a real trip talking to people from all over the world about the piece.

[mdmathis6]

Well...COLONIC RELEASE AVALANCHE PHENOMENA!(or CRAP for short!)

[mdmathis6]

So it is like a “Masque of the Red Death” scenario as written of by Poe.

I am an RN by trade working in an ICU. If something like this broke out, I might be faced with an untenable dilemma; especially since I have family!

[mdmathis6]

So it is like a “Masque of the Red Death” scenario as written of by Poe.

I am an RN by trade working in an ICU. If something like this broke out, I might be faced with an untenable dilemma; especially since I have family!

[James Oscar]

Q: I have one last question before I go, how will these folks know. Are you going to write, or will it be on the news or what?

MA: That is to be easy. All the systems are now in place. The Internet is here, the pandemic blogs are all up and watching and we only wait. It will be out of Egypt, because of the powerful infrastructure watching for H5N1 outbreaks, where most people will hear the first news. When you hear of the sudden outbreak in Egypt, leave immediately. Use only self service gas pumps, do not stop and do not have any human contact from that point on.

If you are alone, or with your family run to a refuge. Wait for it to burn out. Be patient and then patient some more. Let the darkness pass over the earth. It will be quicker than any Hollywood disaster movie could ever portray. But it will pass.

Q: Well that is pretty clear. Egypt huh?

MA: That is where you will first know.

_______________________________________________

Here is her advise to us. Watch Egypt.

It will break out in multiple locations but because of the H5N1 monitoring system in place - the news will first come out of Egypt.

It will be deadly and quick.

[James Oscar]

Q: MA, are you saying that there are to be multiple simultaneous mutations worldwide?

MA: Yes.

Q: And I assume this large scale outbreak is what overpowers the health care systems?

MA: There will never be a real opportunity for containment. This is not Hollywood. No hero will develop a magical antidote just in time to save the beautiful woman. No, this event is of such a consequence that, by the time the scale is apparent, the issue will be settled.

Because the virus is airborne the first three days of outbreaks will saturate such a large population that all the wheels will rapidly come off even the best health care systems. The first task will be to understand what is happening and it will, all to rapidly, become apparent that it is a very hot bug and that it is pandemic.

But by the time the extent of what has happened is well known - there will be no recourse.

Child, there is no recourse even now. We cannot kill this creature. We have only kept it at bay for these many years and that era of detente is rapidly ending.

Q: But MA, you make it sound so hopeless. How could you believe such a thing?

MA: There are things that I believe and things that I know. This virus and its coming change are something I know. I know in detail and specificity that defies all common understanding - yet my knowledge remains.

And now you know.

[mdmathis6]

I’ve seen cytokine storms short circuited with steroids and even aspirin...but i fear that those who survive the initial brush with HIV pneumonic variant will still have the hiv virus in their systems and suffer the eventual lingering denoument of their immune systems and end their lives with AIDS and related oppurtunistic infections.

[James Oscar]

I am a writer and not a medical professional but here is what MA says about the Cy. storm.

___________________________________________

MA: Well, it is not so black and white as you make it. What I believe is that it will change. It will go airborne and it will become quick and deadly. When it makes that magic mutation that gives it the ability to ride the water droplets expelled in a cough or sneeze to the lungs of a healthy person - not only will it have found the mechanism for rapid transmission but the mutation will also set in motion a very different chain of events from what we know now.

When the new HIV virus arrives in the lungs of a new patient there is the great potential for a positive feedback loop to be established between the new invader and the host’s immune system. At the arrival of the new pathogen, cytokine will signal the body to send T Cells to fight the infection. The T cells, upon being stimulated by the cytokine will begin to produce even more cytokine.

This is the normal reaction and happens all the time. But we have a real problem don’t we?

Q: HIV lives on T cells?

MA: Yes of course. So now we have the feedback loop. T cells rushing to the lungs where they are infected with new virus and more and more cytokine being produced by the body. The result is called a “Cytokine Storm”. The lungs begin to fill with fluids and immune cells. The result is sudden death. When this event takes place in the lungs, it can kill a healthy young person in less than 48 hours. We learned this lesson in the 1918 flu outbreak.

Q: So the hardy virus can jump from lungs to lungs and once there put in motion a very serious reaction that will kill you rather quickly. Is that about it?

MA: Just about, the only addition I would add is that once the new bug creates this “soup” in the lungs - with each cough or sneeze this deadly pathogen is sent on an airborne journey looking for a healthy lung to infect.

[James Oscar]

Neutralizing antibody responses are induced very late by HIV in humans - Zinkernagel

While for most acute cytopathic classical childhood infections, tetanus, diphtheria, measles, polio or small pox, our usual in vitro assays ELISA, ?-IFN producing T cells or T cell proliferation correlate reasonably well with the immunological memory, neutralizing antibody responses are induced very late by HIV in humans (or by LCMV in mice), observed Nobel Laureate Dr. Rolf M. Zinkernagel.

Delivering Public Lecture on 'Why do we not have a vaccine against HIV or TB', Zinkernagel said this common feature applies to several human persisting viral infections, including HBV, HCV, HIV (and many parasitic infections) even as HIV-1 infections induce quick and very good ELISA positive responses. If a neutralizing antibody arises and viraemia re-emerges, then often neutralizing antibody escape mutant viruses get selected. This indicates that only a multi-specific type of vaccine may eventually control such infections. Since this may include up to 10,000 or 100,000 variations for HIV (or 1,000 for influenza virus), such a vaccine will be very difficult to develop, he said.

The Nobel laureate said there is good evidence that only persisting and re-encountered antigen maintains the specific neutralizing antibody. This antigen-dependent protection is a far cry from the immunological memory and its relationship to vaccine mediated protection to become plasma cells. Therefore impact of antigen dependent protection via activation of B cells or effector T cells impinges on our understanding of protective vaccines, particularly against chronic persistent types of infections, he maintained.

Zinkernagel who got the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine for 1996 along with Peter C Doherty said vaccine strains that tend to persist, such as BCG, loose protective capacity once the vaccine strain has been eliminated by the host.

On the other hand attenuated vaccine strains may regain virulence under certain circumstances (e.g. HIV-1 or SHIV) suggesting that development of sufficiently attenuated but not too much attenuated vaccine strains may be either extremely difficult or impossible.

http://www.indiaeducationdiary.in/showEE.asp?newsid=11409

[Nita Nupress]

Once in the lung, the new HIV mutant will create a cytokine storm that will quickly overwhelm the patient and the time from infection to death will be sudden and dramatic.

Sounds like the viral equivalent of pneumonic plague. << shudder >>

[PA Engineer]

Thank you very much for the post. Was out of country during the original posting and caught the bounce.

[James Oscar]

Hope you enjoyed it. Feedback is always welcome.