bandit - what does ‘ getting your ticket punched ‘ mean?
Obstacles to getting an early promote include, really competitive groups (staff at Top Gun), quotas for the number of early promotes your CO can give out, train wrecks where too many guys all have to leave the command, and inept COs who don't know how to take care of their guys.
Career killers include flat performance trends, and worse yet declining trends.
then 19.5 year guy definitely has a good case, but unless the Air Force has a different written policy a 15 year guy is toast.
Before being in Special Forces, my son was in the 82nd Airborne in Gulf War I. I asked him what kind of guys were in that kind of unit. He said about one third crazies, 1/3 guys who liked adventure (his category), and 1/3 getting their ticket punched. Which I gather means serving somewhere dangerous/interesting to prepare for higher command. USNB—I guess my son is OK, he has been promoted to several levels of Sergeant, and I think they asked him if he would like to do Officers Candidate School. I think he said no because he is not tempermentally very diplomatic. Mostly says what he believes whether it is what you want to hear or not. After GWI he finished 4 years and went civilian, but was not happy with his job prospects. I asked him what was wrong, and he said, “You know mom, I like to get up at 6 am and run 5 miles.” So most civilian jobs were not his cup of tea. Eventually his Reserve commander coaxed him into reenlisting.