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USA federal:
GDP is $14.6T.
Debt is $14.8T.
Spending is $3.6T
Deficit is $1.3T.
Welfare is $0.7T.

The kicker is that federal revenue never exceeds 20% of GDP - $2.9T theoretical max, $2.3T current reality. Revenue sources are pretty much tapped out. Increasing taxation at this point will reduce revenue, as producers will “go Galt” (reduce taxable income and/or drop out of production).

The second kicker is that GDP annual growth averages 2% - and the federal spending baseline growth is legislated >3%. It would take greater-than-average unsustainable GDP growth just to keep pace with _baseline_ spending increases (not to mention above-and-beyond spending increases, which are where ALL the “cuts” are happening).

That leaves spending cuts - deep ones - to avoid ruinous debt.

The third kicker is that about 20% of federal spending is untouchable debt servicing. That’s a third rail: touch it, and the debt-driven system dies. That leaves the remaining spending to bear 50% cuts across the board JUST to stop the deficit.

The fourth kicker - and this one is to the head - is that about half of all “taxpayers” receive a net profit on their tax liability. By being in that financial position, they also garner assorted additional profit thru welfare. They have no incentive to initiate real spending cuts; to the contrary, they have intense interest in keeping, at minimum, welfare/social spending right where it is.

That leaves us with the conclusion that to JUST stop the ruinous deficit, ALL non-debt non-welfare spending must stop. Outright. Period. No military spending. No other government bureaucracies. No EPA, Education, Energy, BATFE, Transportation, NEA, IRS, etc. departments (some may cheer their demise, but the fallout would be enormous - starting with millions of federal workers joining the unemployed with no wealth-creation skills). ...which ain’t gonna happen.

Same fate suffered? Yes. The path there may vary, but the endpoint is the same. This system will continue as is (thanks, Boehner), with fewer entities buying our ever-increasing debt, causing the Federal Reserve to declare the existence of ever more digital currency to buy that debt, devaluing the dollar at an accelerating rate, aggravated by sociopolitical thrashing to confiscate more to prop up the “too big to let fail” system and increased evasion of that confiscation, hyperinflation sets in, and non-producers do not have enough to survive. Gets kinda ugly.

Excellent analysis! Thanks!

Using your figures:

” USA federal:
GDP is $14.6T.
Debt is $14.8T.
Spending is $3.6T
Deficit is $1.3T.
Welfare is $0.7T.”

I find that income is 3.6 - 1.3 T $ = 2.3 T$. ( I’m not sure how the welfare # fits in.)

Then to find the % of excess spending: 2.3T$/100% = 3.6T$/X , X = 156.5% was spent, or 56.5 % more money was spent than was collected.

In your humble, but ALWAYS correct opinion, would you agree that elected Federal politicians should have all their benefits and salaries cut each year by the % of overspending as calculated above?