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To: TexasTransplant

The elephant in the room is economy. Election is over a year away. If economy roars back to life, Barry will unfortunately have a good chance. But there are no signs that unemployment (REAL, not gov’t figures) will get below 20% by Oct 2012. Europe is seriously heading into a recession. That is 1/3 of world’s GDP. Our FED has no bullets left, rates already near 0. Congress is highly unlikely to pass any more stimuli with borrowed money.

If you think our real-estate bubble was bad, Chinese bubble
is twice as inflated. No one knows when it will pop but it is a matter of not if, but when. Any one major economy getting in trouble will cascade down the line.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rPILhiTJv7E

So, if my prediction on economy holds true, any GOP_ nominee wins. I hope it is Cain, but I will be OK with most others except Paul & Romney.


36 posted on 10/25/2011 11:27:34 PM PDT by federal__reserve (Perry is a good man but his one on one debates with Obama keeps me awake at nights.)
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To: federal__reserve
federal__reserve: I hope many many Freepers focus on your reply which recites fears which I have been outlining of these threads and in private freepmail for many months.

There are three props to the inner connected world economy, the US, Euro zone, and China and all three are in desperate trouble. Even if the elites in Europe managed to kick the can down the road on Greece, can they play whack a mole with the other PIGS? Italy shows signs of having serious problems without the immediate obvious cause being contagion from Greece.

As you point out we have one year until the election and if any one of these three props gives way, the consequence will be nothing less than catastrophic because, as you again point out, we have no silver bullets left to fire.

Worse, in the intervening year a black swan event of almost any kind can precipitate an unraveling and one need only look to the Arab nightmare which this administration persists in calling the Arab spring for a likely source. But it need not be a man-made event, a tsunami, a hurricane, a volcano which interrupts commerce, a plague, are merely tokens for intrusions which could convert our vulnerability into chaos.

Let's look at this pessimistic picture from Obama's viewpoint. If he is as I believe a true Marxist who despises America and who wants to see it submerged into a George Soros' inspired world order, and if he knows, as you point out, that his election chances of becoming daily more desperate, his seemingly politically suicidal embrace of the WSO movement takes on a sinister aspect.

Normally the electorate reacts Post Hoc, Ergo Propter Hoc crediting the occupier of the Oval Office for the good and blaming him for the bad without regard actual causation. Most analysis of Obama's intentions assume this principle to be guiding his behavior. Suppose he reads the poll numbers and concludes that there is no possibility of winning the election so he is leapfrogging this reality to a atmosphere of chaos?

Perhaps he's not trying to win the election but to win the chaos?


46 posted on 10/26/2011 2:19:19 AM PDT by nathanbedford ("Attack, repeat, attack!" Bull Halsey)
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