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WHAT WOULD YOU DO WITHOUT FREE REPUBLIC?
Posted on 10/19/2011 10:35:19 PM PDT by parksstp
This is pure blather. Basing anything off of what that idiot with the rat on his head, Sabato, has to say is ridiculous. He is a lefty hack who rarely gets anything right. If you want to play the game of “if the election held today”, look at Obummers polls and look at the enthusiasm gap between GOP and Rat. Know what it says? Anyone can beat Obummer, including Perry.
don’t forget about the sizable fraction (Juan Williams says 1/3) of black votes that Herman Cain would pull away from Obama that no other Republican can.
1/3 is a bit large. I doubt he could pull that high. 10-15% would be very significant.
Been saying it for months.
Strongly disagree! Romney follows in the shoes of Dole and McCain. He will not carry the South with the exception of WV which is really not a southern state in many ways.
A Romney or Perry is going to see a lack of enthusiasm for their candidacy. We’re better off essentially imprinting the futility of the Democrat agenda on the younger generation by forcing Obama’s ineptitude down their throats. Much of America has already come to understand this already. With a Republican Senate and House, Obama is effectively neutered. He’ll be the poster child for uselessness. Conservative voters do not want a RINO. They’ll pull the lever for conservative candidates and leave Romney/Perry’s dance card empty.
The Republican Party cannot win with a ‘perfect’ candidate like Tom Dewey or Mitt Romney. There’s a lot of the Harry Truman persona in Cain.
Give’m hell, Herman!
You might think so, but look at all the criminality and sidestepping the congress the Regime is doing already. Might be easier to strong arm a squish in the WH, much like we stopped Bush's Harriet Myers idea and Amnesty, than hope for a miracle against another 4 years of absolute misery. The squish in question is Perry. I don't know about Mittens. He is pretty slimy.
His SCOTUS nominations could sink us for a couple of generations.
And it's not just Obama I want gone as soon as possible. I want Holder, Napolitano, Clinton and all of that other scum out of office.
If Romney or Perry get the nomination, we get 4 more yrs of Obumo. Don’t underestimate his re-electability via class warfare and scapegoating. More than enough of the electorate will buy into that for him to pose a serious threat.
It’s obvious that Romney won’t carry the conservative vote, and that Perry will be viewed as a redux of GW Bush.
I agree with getting the scum out. Unfortunately neither Romney nor Perry are going to edge Obama out.
Many states' polls are all over the map, but Mitt Romney is close to Obama or ahead of Obama in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Furthermore, Obama is underwater in approval in these states. Being underwater in approval doesn't guarantee an Obama loss, but a credible GOP candidate can flip a state where the president is underwater in approval. To be credible, a candidate has to have the right mix of experience and be able to talk about the issues clearly. Mitt Romney has that experience and can speak clearly. I understand that everyone on Free Republic sees Mitt Romney as the anti-Christ. You'd rather re-elect Obama than vote for Mitt Romney. However, your wishful thinking that Mitt Romney can't win these states doesn't change the fact that he can both. He is certainly more likely to win one or both of these states than Herman Cain is.
John McCain was popular in New Hampshire relative to other Republicans, but he was still a pathetic candidate. Against Barack Obama, he appeared old and out of touch. New Hampshire voters are not as enthralled with the cowboy image that some conservatives think is necessary for someone to be a conservative. Republicans have had a hard time in New Hampshire because most recent Republicans have had that image. Mitt Romney won't have that image problem, so he has a good chance to win New Hampshire.
Mitt Romney has made numerous trips to Nevada and won the caucuses there easily in 2008. In spite of what the Romney haters think, many conservatives either like Mitt Romney or would at least rather have him than have Obama for four more years. Those who are still comfortable in their jobs and haven't lost too much value in their homes can hide behind their keyboards, whine about things that Mitt Romney has said in the past, and insist that they'd rather have another four years of Obama. Huge numbers of Americans in other situations don't believe that anti-Romney accusations and wouldn't care that much even if they did as long as Mitt Romney kept his promises to start making changes that will bring back jobs. They make a Romney win likely in Nevada in spite of the howling of the Romney haters.
Mitt Romney has also been active campaigning in Colorado and would have a good chance to put Colorado in play. Colorado has a bit of a yuppie demographic. Many of those people saw John McCain as old and out of touch and saw Sarah Palin as an idiot. I can disagree with them all day long about Sarah Palin, but my disagreement doesn't change the fact that they flocked to Obama. A credible GOP ticket and the poor economy would bring them back to the GOP. The Tea Party may be active in Colorado, but the gains among urban and suburban professionals would more than compensate for Tea Party types who hate Mitt Romney more than they want Obama out of office. Mitt Romney could win Colorado.
New Mexico is likely to stay in Obama's column, but his approval there is low. A credible candidate has a chance, but the Democrats may win simply because they will put resources into the senate campaign that you mentioned. Our choice of candidate probably doesn't affect the New Mexico outcome that much, but Mitt Romney does no worse than any others.
Indiana will almost certainly go back to the GOP. We lost Indiana only because people bought into the whole "hope and change" myth and because we ran a weak ticket. Winning Indiana shouldn't be consideration.
Florida should go back to the GOP because of Obama's positions on Israel, but we will need to be careful. Rick Perry will have a hard time winning Florida because of his statements about Social Security. For most workers, Herman Cain's 9-9-9 plan may not be so bad because wages may rise as corporations with lower tax rates use some of the extra money to compete for the best employees. For retirees, the addition of a national sales tax is a loss without any compensating gain. Cain's 9-9-9 will never pass the Senate anyway, but if we are going to admit that his plan cannot pass, then the rationale for supporting him as a candidate disappears also. Herman Cain and Rick Perry are the GOP's weakest candidates for winning Florida in the general election even though the "anyone but Romney" vote is making Herman Cain competitive in primary polls. Unless we can swing Pennsylvania and Michigan, we need to win Florida, and Mitt Romney has a much better chance than Herman Cain does.
The GOP will have to work to win Ohio again, but conditions are right for that win. None of our candidates will have a particular advantage in Ohio, and Herman Cain's Georgia background certainly doesn't make him "one of us" in Ohio.
North Carolina barely went for Obama in 2008 and should swing back to the GOP fairly easily. Even so, North Carolina has a large population of people who are highly educated and work in technology intensive jobs. They are more likely to relate to Mitt Romney than they are to Herman Cain. They certainly won't relate to Rick Perry.
Virginia will be like North Carolina, and the big population of urban/suburban professionals in Northern Virginia will also lean more towards a more educated candidate. Any Republican is going to have some problems with this population because reducing the federal government will eliminate many of the jobs that support the Northern Virginia sprawl. For image reasons, these people won't vote for Rick Perry. They probably won't have a big preference between Mitt Romney and Herman Cain.
Iowa is the only state where Mitt Romney would have a serious disadvantage against Obama compared to other Republicans. The religious conservatives will fall into the Jeffries style of anti-Mormon voting, and Mr. Romney's decision to skip the straw poll will bother the entire state.
Again, I realize that Free Republic is headed by and full of people who hate Mitt Romney more than they hate Obama. I realize that they'd rather have another four years of Obama than to see Mitt Romney become president. If that's how you feel, that's your right. However, the notion that Mitt Romney isn't the strongest candidate against Obama is silly.
Think in the end it will come down to Romney winning above the Mason Dixon line and Perry below it.
Cain will strip votes away from both Romney and Perry.
Rick Perry may not have the strength to win much in the South during the primaries either. He makes himself look worse with every debate appearance. Rick Perry is doing poorly in Florida right now, and he's not doing that well in South Carolina. If he doesn't win at least one of those states, his campaign may never recover.
Any Republican should win most of the South during the general election.
This commentary wasn't about the primaries but was about the general election. Mr. Romney has a good chance to win the nomination, but that outcome isn't certain. Either way, my point is not about what happens in the primaries but what will happen in the general election.
If Free Republic wants to be against Mitt Romney's nomination or against his election if he wins the nomination, that's the site's choice. However, trying to fool yourselves into believing that Mitt Romney isn't the candidate most likely to defeat Obama is foolish. If you want to oppose him in the primaries in spite of the strength that he'd bring to the general election, that's your choice. If you want to vote 3rd party if he wins the nomination, that's your choice. You can even pretend that he's not the most likely candidate to beat Obama, but when someone makes such a ridiculous statement, I'm going to point out why that statement is wrong.
Jim R. is right. If Romney does manage (like McCain “managed”, thanks to a great big assist by Rudy) to win the nomination, we will be facing the same problem we had in that situation. Screwed if you do, screwed if you don’t. Many of us are getting very, very tired of that option and have and probably will again come up with another alternative.
Rommey may get a few more votes than McCain did, but he still will not get enough, unless Dems vote for him, which would not really surprise me. They all like John Holdren. Peeee yuuuuu. 100 years (or more) of establishment Republicans seems to have done little good for conservatives or the country in general. I won’t vote for the man, who like John Kerry feels that the country owes him the Presidency since the day of his birth (Governor for a father and Senator for a mother).
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