A candidate can afford to annoy his base when his base has no place else to go. Conservatives may toy with the Gingrich or Cain candidacies just as they toyed with the Bachmann candidacy for a time. But when push comes to shove and the choice is Romney or Perry, Perry will win.
This isn't what I want to happen. But it will happen. Perry won't be very good. With luck he may be good enough.
Its too early to know whats going to happen. Last cycle this time Guliani and Huckabee were leading. Look how that turned out. There is no handwriting on the wall this early. Its a wide open race at this point.