Do Gun Numbers And Fatalities Correlate?

onlygunsandmoney ^ | 15 September, 2011 | John Richardson

[marktwain]

The answer is yes - negatively. In this case, negative is good. The more negative it is, the better.

We know that because of a lot of hard work and number crunching by Linoge at Walls of the City blog. He has just put out his Graphics Matter, Year the Third. He has examined the available data from the last 28 years and has thoroughly debunked the gun prohibitionists' theory that more guns equals more deaths. His analysis leads him to conclude:

1. The hypothesis of "more guns = more deaths" is demonstrably false over the past 28 years of documented American history. The number of firearms in civilian circulation have been steadily increasing over that time period, and the number of firearm-related fatalities has not been equivalently increasing. However, again, since there seems to be some confusion on the concept, proving "more guns = more deaths" to be false does not prove "more guns = fewer deaths" to be true. Doing so would require accounting for far more variables than I did, and involve far more interesting math than I employed, and require controlling for far more variables than I care to.

2. When comparing raw numbers, there is a weak, negative correlation between the number of firearms in America and the number of firearm-related fatalities, and that correlation seems to become more negative with additional data.

3. When comparing rates, there is a strong, negative correlation between the number of firearms per person in America and the number of firearm-related fatalities per person, and that correlation seems to become more negative with additional data.

And unlike the gun prohibitionists, he provides his full analysis and data. That is very important in this sort of research. It allows other researchers the ability to replicate his results. Being able to do that serves to confirm the validity of his findings.

The work that Linoge did is very sophisticated but very understandable. I have had 5 semesters of statistics over the years and I would say the work he has done here is every bit as rigorous as what would be seen in a peer-reviewed journal article. Unlike a journal article, he explains what he did every step of the way and didn't fill his page with academic jargon mumbo-jumbo.

The post that Linoge just put up should be read by everyone involved in the fight for gun rights. It is that important.

[marktwain]

The author gives many assumptions in favor of the anti-freedom arguments. He includes only "gun fatalities" when what is really important is total fatalities. He includes suicide, when suicide is a personal choice that is independent of the method used.

Still, he shows that on its face, the idea that more guns result in more gun deaths is false.

This is a little surprising, as we would expect deaths correlated with a group of objects woud increase as the number of those objects increase in society, and that would be a neutral fact. More automobiles means more automobile related deaths. More solar panels would mean more solar panel related deaths.

But, surprisingly, more guns do not mean more gun related deaths.

[muawiyah]

There's really nothing at all surprising in this.

Let me point to another correlation ~ as the number of guns has risen, and the incidence of any particular person you might encounter having one has also increased, the Leftwingtards and their bully friends have had to give up cutting into line, pushing your cart out of the way at the grocery store, and trying to beat you to the only available parking space in the parking lot.

[Pecos]

My problem with most of these studies, including this one (favorable to my aims), is that one variable cannot be isolated from another because there is no control population. If I was a Lefty, I would point to the large down swing in gun-deaths-per-10,000 after Brady and Assault Weapon Ban were passed and say that "Even though gun deaths did not hooorribly increase after they expired, the brighter people in the country did their job well and brought more common sense even to the less intelligent among you. That, and our constant PSAs and gun buy-backs, are the only thing standing between this country and total anarchy."

[aimhigh]

I’m concerned about the term: ‘firearm related deaths’. I’d like to see the number of INNOCENT firearm related deaths separated from criminals killed by firearms.