Tom Jensen from Democrat pollster PPP tweeted that after the first day of their NY-09 poll it is clear that the Democrats are in “BIG TROUBLE” (and he emphasized that it merited all caps). PPP has been pretty good in their final polls the last couple of years (it is in their early polls that they usually skew the samples in order to pretend that Dems are looking good and Republicans are in trouble), since they know they’ll be judged on their final poll before the election, so this is great news indeed.
Of course, I’m not ready to put on my party hat yet, since PPP famously had a final poll showing Hoffman winning handily in NY-23 in the 2009 special election, but in all fairness a poll taken while RINO nominee Scozzafava was dropping out but right before she endorsed the Democrat was a unique set of circumstances that does not truly measure PPP’s accuracy (plus the fact that Hoffman likely would have won but for the early votes that already had been cast for Scozzafava). So I’m cautiously optimistic about our chances of actually winning Tuesday’s special election. Turner has been a much better candidate than I thought he would be; I honestly did not think that a Republican who was not an Orthodox Jew could win in that district.
Forgot to ping you.
Homer nods: Jensen’s exact Tweet was “My pretty straight forward take on the first night of our NY-9 poll: Dems in BIG trouble. It deserves the caps.” So only the BIG was in all caps. I don’t think it changes things much, but I should have double-checked what he wrote before posting instead of relying on my memory.