Posted on 08/26/2011 2:18:22 PM PDT by LaybackLenny
Ohio is one of the all important swing states, a must win, if someone wants to become President of the United States. Making a favorable impression on Ohioans goes a long way towards winning over the entire nation.
Though some national polls that over sample democrats and don’t include likely voters [the only reliable group to sample] have shown Sarah Palin has a “favorability problem,” every legit poll that specifically targets likely Republican voters and Republican leaning independents has shown Sarah Palin to have the best favorability among the candidates. This has been consistent since serious polling for 2012 started.
Ohio is no different. Democrat polling firm PPP’s latest poll shows Governor Palin has 65% approval rating as compared to Rick Perry at 50%.
We’re 15 months out from the general election of November 2012, and some 8 to 10 months away from settling the primaries. That’s too far away to use votes as a guide as to who will be the Republican nominee. In fact, history shows those who lead early also peak early, and rarely make the final cut of candidates vying for the nomination. After all, other than a few debates, no one is really campaigning yet.
Favorability is the key this early on. The fact that Sarah’s favorability is always higher than any one else, among the folks who will actually nominate her, is the key. High favorability means people will listen to what she has to say, and once she starts putting forth more of her plans to Revive, Renew, and Restore America, the likelihood of a large, receptive audience is far greater than with any other candidate.
A lot of folks live and die by polls that show supposed vote count, and over a long period of time one can spot certain trends, but the numbers to look at this far out are the ones measuring favorability. Those trends show Sarah Palin is consistently seen in the best light by Republicans and Republican leaning independents.
In my opinion, favorability equates to potential voters. At the very least it means a large group of people who will listen to what a candidate has to say.
In a key state like Ohio this spells trouble, not only for the rest of the Republican candidates, but Barack Obama too.
As more people come to know her, they'll realize that she's a person of substance, an effective chief executive, and has developed a loyal, growing following.
The anti-Palin diatribes from the lamestream media are nearly identical to that which Ronald Reagan had to endure, and conquer. Reagan did it his way, and Palin is going to do it her way.
Obama's continued incompetence will only help the Governor.
I still don't trust any polling from them.
Count me in the Palin supporters. She's the best choice in my opinion. The media has been attacking her and her family for over 3 years, and they have nothing on her. She's proven to stand up to their scrutiny. She will mobilize the loony left, but the loony left will hate any Republican candidate.
Perry is going to need to fight the media like a girl, a momma grizly, to impress me. Even then, I'm not convinced he's the best choice.
I don’t either. I put them right below real estate appraisers. The entity paying for the service can pretty much get the the result they are willing to pay for.
This will cause some intestinal disruption.
I pray she will, and if she does, I'm all in.
Money, time work, phones call, door knocking, TEA party rallies, bumper stickers, convincing friends {that can be swayed} to vote for her.
If I've forgotten any thing, between when she announces and November 2012, some one at FR will remind me what it is, and I'll do it.
GO SARAH.
Key statement.
She’ll announce in April at the begining of the Spring Grizzly Season.
No, PPP is a pretty partisan liberal outfit. I do not believe them on anything. I didn’t believe them earlier this year when they said that If Palin were the candidate, she would lose the election by more than any Republican candidate in decades, I did not believe them last week when they said Perry has a double digit lead, I did not believe them last week when they said that Romney is tied with Obama and all other Republicans trail Obama and I still don’t believe them now.
She’s running a different type of campaign and she’s not going to announce at all and on election day, everyone is just going to write in her name and she’ll win 50 states and even Obama will be won over and vote for her, maybe more than once and she might even win a Senate seat and a House of Representatives seat in addition to the Presidency and she’ll take the oath of office on election day sitting on a moose or a grizzly bear.
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Sarah Palin?
Favorable...................................... 34%
Unfavorable.................................... 59%
Not sure........................................ 7%
If the candidates for President next year were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama.................................... 51%
Sarah Palin .................................... 38%
Undecided....................................... 11%
Now, those numbers are for the whole sample. It is true that if you break it out for just Republicans, Palin has a 62% favorability, compared to 48% for Perry. But of course, Palin has been campaigning for 2 years, while Perry had been campaigning for 2 weeks. And if we look at Perry's numbers for the whole sample we see:
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Rick Perry?
Favorable................................... 28%
Unfavorable ................................ 37%
Not sure ................................... 35%
So Perry has a slightly lower favorable rating than Palin, but has a MUCH lower unfavorable rating than she does. He also has a much larger "undecided" group. It is always much easier to win over the undecided than it is to convert the unfavorable...
If the candidates for President next year were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama............................... 45%
Rick Perry ................................ 41%
Undecided.................................. 14%
Here we see that Perry, after 2 weeks, is only 4 points behind Obama, while Sarah, after more than 2 years, is 13 points behind.
MY bad. This poll was taken from August 11-14. Perry announced on August 13th, so this was after 2 DAYS of Perry campaigning, versus 2 years of Palin campaigning. I just wanted to correct the record.
By cracky, I'll set the DVD timer for that!
If Palin jumps in, she WILL be the next POTUS. I’ve never been more sure of anything in my life. And no, it’s not just wishful thinking - this woman is far more politically astute than anyone I can recall in politics in my lifetime. She’s the kind of person who would (and did) play basketball on a fractured foot to help her team win!
You need to give the following link a click and look at the data that was being presented in this thread...
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_OH_0825.pdf
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable........................................................ 65%
Unfavorable .................................................... 24%
Not sure .......................................................... 10%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable........................................................ 50%
Unfavorable .................................................... 15%
Not sure .......................................................... 35%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable........................................................ 52%
Unfavorable .................................................... 30%
Not sure .......................................................... 18%
Now I think the following two questions are important but not mentioned in the article posted.
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Sarah Palin, Ron
Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Rick Perry, and Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ......................................... 10%
Herman Cain................................................... 8%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 7%
Jon Huntsman................................................. 1%
Sarah Palin ..................................................... 11%
Ron Paul ......................................................... 7%
Tim Pawlenty .................................................. 3%
Rick Perry ....................................................... 21%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 18%
Someone else/Undecided............................... 15%
Q11 If Sarah Palin didn’t end up running for
President, and the candidates were Michele
Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon
Huntsman, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Rick
Perry, and Mitt Romney, who would you vote
for?
Michele Bachmann ......................................... 14%
Herman Cain................................................... 10%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 8%
Jon Huntsman................................................. 1%
Ron Paul ......................................................... 8%
Tim Pawlenty .................................................. 3%
Rick Perry ....................................................... 21%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 20%
Someone else/Undecided............................... 16%
Okay, so they took two polls over the same period - one for the general election matchups (which I was referencing) and one for the primary only. However, it doesn’t look like there is much difference. One interesting thing about your numbers is that they show that Sarah does not pull away any Perry supporters if she gets in the race. She pulls from Bachmann, Cain and Romney, primarily.
Once in the race, she will quickly establish herself as the front runner. I believe she will take at least two of the first three primaries (Iowa and South Carolina) and pretty much wrap up the nomination on Super Tuesday. If she can beat Mitt Romney in New Hampshire, that will be sweet!
I believe Sarah Palin is the only candidate we have that can weather the abuse that the Obama campaign will bring to bear. They are going to have over a billion dollars to spend on their campaign and this will be the dirtiest campaign in our history. This is because Obama knows he cannot run on his record (no "Morning in America" campaign for him) and can only win by destroying his opponent. I believe Rick Perry has a thinner skin than Palin and can be more easily destroyed because he'll be goaded into saying things that will make him unelectable - while Palin will shrug it off.
I also believe Perry is too much of an "establishment" candidate who will not bring serious change to Washington D.C. if elected. It will be the "same old same old" back-slapping politics as usual that us in the Tea Party have grown to detest.
Sarah Palin is the only candidate that will truly make a lasting change in Washington D.C. and we've got to do everything we can to get her there.
Misleading title - if the election were today and Sarah Palin and Rick Perry were running, Perry would win.
If Sarah is not in the race, Rick Perry would win.
According to this poll, the Gallup Poll, and every poll this week, Rick Perry would (and will) win.
Your post is spot on! Thanks!!!!
“......Sarah Palin is the only candidate we have that can weather the abuse that the Obama campaign will bring to bear.”
Grizzly Bears repeating.....Ursus Arctos Horrilibis.....
The Dems Obama will pull out all stops against any/every Republican candidate no matter who..... Palin has been immunized against lefty slurs/attacks of the past 3 years, and can/will spend her campaign efforts putting forth a positive, decidely American agenda and not have to spend any time defending herself. She, of all the candidates, has been thoroughly vetted not only by her own side, but by an openly hostile MSM/Dem/radical left coalition.
Beware the Bear!
“internal polls provided to Sarah Palin bear out that she can win ...”
No. Current polls are with a pre-game Sarah Palin who is doing warmup exercises, studying her opponents and building her team.
Palin hasn’t made her case yet to the American people.
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