It's funny that you should repeat that rhetoric again this election. Many here were making the same claim in 2008, being absolutely positive that Obama’s numbers were much, much lower than the MSM was claiming, due to this phenomenon.
Election night proved the exact opposite. But everyone making this claim here, were still proclaiming that McCain would win easily, right up to the last moment, even in spite of what the polls were showing.
As it now stands, Obama’s numbers are still way too high to make any predictions like you currently are. (Unfortunately)
He has a record, one that is pretty set against the wishes of the public, and once it is attacked clearly, he's going to have problems explaining it despite the MSM. I think you simply can't see the trend clearly.
But wnat's new about that?