I believe you are 100% correct.
Some states may try to leave, but the more realistic scenario is anarchy brought on by class warfare and thugism in the streets, exacerbated by the vitriol coming from Obama. Social order will go, and the states are too weak to be the fall-back form of government holding things together. Some local couties and cities will be able to self-govern. It will be more like Afghanistan than Bosnia.
That is why guns and ammo and survivalist self sustainment is so important and popular these days. The government will look like it did during Katrina. Could not even deliver water, much less govern at the state or even county level. And the Feds and Fema were completely useless. Politicians are too busy stealing and paying back the people that own them to actually exercise any kind of political leadership. That is why wwe are in the sorry state we find ourselves.
Possibly you are correct, but the anarchy will only last for a short time. During those days the majority will choose to yield over most of their rights, in desperate longing for safety/normalcy, to an authoritarian/fascist state. This new government will have the consent of the church (small c), most social conservatives, and most economic liberals.