This is simple. If Sarah Palin does not enter the presidential race, Mitt Romney will win the GOP nomination--no ifs, and or buts. Did every other conservative in the United States of America get taken away by a UFO?
Considering that 65% of all voters have stated they will "definitely NOT vote for Sarah Palin", surely, in a country of over 300 million, there must be at least one conservative candidate that does not guarantee Barack Hussein Obama an easy reelection with such utterly toxic poll numbers.
Of all the debaters in the recent Republican debate, most American voters would choose "None of the Above".
Bill Clinton did not announce his first winning candidacy until October of the year before the election. The GOP has until around October of 2011 to attract a strong conservative candidate whose poll numbers are not lower than whale scat at the bottom of the ocean and who can actually defeat Obama.
If not, we will have either RINO Romney or Marxist Obama as the President for the next four years.
All you have to do is to examine the vast array of polls post-Huckabee (not the Rasmussen poll today which did not include Palin).
Here are the results of 10 polls since the June 2 PPP poll that show Palin entrenched in second spot:
ROMNEY PALIN DIFF NEXT DIFF FROM PALIN
ABC/WAPO-—21————17—— -4———8-———— -9
QUINNPIAC—25————15-—— -10——9-———— -6
REUTERS/IP-18————19-—— +1-——8———— -11
FOX————23————12-—— -11——13-————+1
FDU————26————11-—— -15——9————— -2
USA/GALL-—24————16-—— -8-——9————— -7
CNN————24————20-—— -4——12————— -8
ECON/YG——14————20-—— +6——11-———— -9
NBC/WSJ——30————14-—— -16-—12-———— -2
PPP————22————15-—— -7——17-———— +2
AVG————22.7-——15.9
No one else is averaging double digits who was included on the ballot in each poll.
Yes, if Sarah Palin does not win, Mitt Romney will be the nominee of the GOP next year. In addition with Palin not in the mix, polls show that he actually widens his lead on the field.
But even with Palin in the field Romney’s gap on the rest of the field by 13-15 points is really insurmountable for them.
The only person with a reasonable chance of catching Mitt Romney is Sarah Palin. The numbers speak for themselves.
Clinton announced late in a year when nobody wanted to go against Poppy and so there was no front-runner. Also, back in 1992 the primaries still started a couple of months later than they do now.
The usual is for the nominee to be someone who is regularly polling in double digits by June, and only Romney and Palin fit that criterion in this cycle.