[no gnu taxes]

You might recall that in national polls leading up to the Primaries, Reagan was vastly ahead of all other candidates.

[Servant of the Cross]

vastly ahead ≠ "Establishment". Reagan was the pre-primary front-runner.

And, vastly ahead isn't even close to a description of the reality of that campaign as shown in post #38. And the reason it was so close? ... IMHO, because the 'Establishment' didn't want Reagan.

[fluffdaddy]

Of course Reagan was ahead in early polling once Ford opted out. He had the same advantage Romney has now — he was the only familiar name in the field. Everyone with the name recognition to compete in a pre-campaign poll chose not to run. That advantage disappeared when Bush won Iowa. Suddenly Reagan was down in NH by more than 20 points and swirling in the drain. He managed to turn it around, but it was a near-run thing (the incident at Nashua High School was pivotal) and a lesser candidate couldn't have managed it.

There may have been someone, somewhere foolish enough to think Reagan was inevitable as 1979 became 1980. John Sears may have been overconfident. But Reagan always faced a hard uphill climb against a hostile Party apparatus and it was only by the grace of God that things turned out as they did.