In a recession, you do not see people lined up at Kohls. The "they are using credit" works as an explanation once or twice, but not for two years. At some point, the credit cards max out . . . or, they don't because they are getting paid off. My next door neighbor lost his job with J. P. Morgan mortgage. He hasn't changed his lifestyle. He did get a job selling cars---but that can't be doing well.
All I'm saying is, I'll believe we're in a recession when I go to the mall and all the high-dollar stores are empty, or go to P. F. Changs on a Friday night and don't have to wait 45 min.
I travel a lot. Yes, the airlines have cut down the number of routes. But almost all flights I take are full. I don't see the Vegas hotels cutting fantastic deals.
” ll I’m saying is, I’ll believe we’re in a recession when I go to the mall and all the high-dollar stores are empty, or go to P. F. Changs on a Friday night and don’t have to wait 45 min.
I travel a lot. Yes, the airlines have cut down the number of routes. But almost all flights I take are full. I don’t see the Vegas hotels cutting fantastic deals. “
Well, you’re going to believe what you want to believe, but for those who go to Walmart (or Target if we’re feeling particularly ‘rich’) instead of the Malls, and have had to give up restaurants (the kind with tables and silverware and no dollar menu, anyway) altogether - and have to buy gasoline to go to work instead of airline tickets to go to Vegas, there’s a recession on....
Of course they are full if fewer flights are available. It's the most efficient load anyway - why would an airline want to fly a half-empty airplane? Modern automation certainly helps the airline to learn about potential passengers (perhaps from other airlines) and offer them a seat.
One potential explanation for seeing people merrily shopping during a recession is that the shopper is maxing out his credit lines.
What is happening today is that the U.S. government is spending 1.6 trillion dollars more each year than they are taking in and the government is maxing out its credit lines.
Where do you suppose that 1.6 trillion dollars is going? How much longer can such money be supplied? What must happen to economic activity if a large portion of the 1.6 trillion dollars stops flowing?
Keep in mind that the U.S. government is not an exception in this matter but is merely behaving as most governments are throughout the world.