Posted on 02/15/2011 3:48:45 AM PST by davidosborne
Balderdash.
I posted a reference as to why, statistically, her ability to win in the general election is highly doubtful. You are basing your position on . . .
I FReep quite regularly and see thread after thread of statistics, not to mention FReepers both pro and anti Sarah.
When you make a blanket statement that Sarah has basically zero chance "statistically" based on one outlier article when she is winning so many straw polls, is coming in first or second in legitimate polls and, although her negatives are high, we know that those negatives can be dramatically lowered once she actually declares and runs a good campaign, there is really little need in my life to waste my time on such a shallow and false-on-its-face allegation such as you made.
To further assert that a good but unknown man might have a better chance "but we don't know yet" is just you shooting from the hip again and clearly is not based on statistical thinking but on wishful thinking, just like your anti-Sarah statement.
So, now I've spent way more time than your original assertion deserved in the first place, but at least you know. If you want more statistics just search the forum for "Sarah Palin" and you will find lots. I don't keep them handy, I search for them when I need them, too.
. . . although her negatives are high, we know that those negatives can be dramatically lowered . . ."
Which is it? An outlier article (it's several articles discussing the results of almost every scientifically conducted poll on the issue), or her negatives really are extremely high?
Statisticians are chomping at the bit to have Palin nominated and see 0bama's favorability ratings drop dramatically. Why? Because they've never seen it before and they want to see what will happen when two people the general public really dislike run for president.
It's not just that her favorability ratings are in the -20s in almost every poll I've seen (in the high negative teens at best). The *real* issue is the *strength* of the convictions. In the Penn Schoen Berland/Politico poll of Dec. 3-8, 2010, 59% of those polled had "strong" views of Palin, overwhelmingly *negative*. This is one poll, but I have yet to see a real poll (not an organizational straw poll) that shows anything that supports your assertion that these feelings will just go away later.
Straw polls are typically not going to tell you how the general public would vote. If they are, you can send an email to President Ron Paul, who seems to uncannily win many straw polls and fail everywhere else.
I also *have* to ask . . .
Usually the unpopular candidates improve in the polls as the public gets to know the candidates better. This is usually because the press don’t really dwell on people like Romney or Pawlenty or DeMint until they become candidates.
How much more media does Sarah Palin need before the public gets to know her?
The public knows (or thinks it knows) Sarah Palin. They’ve formed an opinion. I do *not* believe that additional press will do anything to change anyone’s opinions. I’m sorry, but if you run her, unless she completely reinvents herself (thus making her unpopular with her current supporters), she has a very slim chance of winning the election.
You are getting no response because your arguments are not persuasive.
Why are you so desperate to trash Sarah?
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