These polls are a mile wide and an inch deep. Once Sarah does some debates, where people can see her sans media filter, people will see her as she is. Our country is 40% conservative, 20% liberal, and 40% apolitical. The silent majority will naturally gravitate to her, and the apolitical will follow the strong horse.
I have no idea where you obtain the data you quote; but this I know.
Though I wish it were otherwise, as of now (today) Ms. Palin does not have enough votes to place a distant third in a republican primary (yes...my opinion).
As to her winning debates....with whom? She'd never ever be able to hold her own if she had to go up against the little tin god now. She needs to establish some much much wider credentials. She needs to fight a few 3 rounders with suitable opponents...the get on a sub-card somewhere and win a few 10 rounders...convincingly so (pardon all the boxing references - but this is going to be a fight.)
She needs to become the recognized "under-dog" but a sure winner if given the chance. Right now, she's not even out of the gym yet...she's working on the speed bag, and doin' a few rounds with the heavy bag....and has a very deep but terribly narrow following.
She'd better get into the ring...and win some.