You are talking about a >1% move in the ten-year in ~~ a month? I suppose that has happened before but to use a word that’s supposed to be “retired” in 2010, that would be “epic”.
It would also be a massive, massive, world-wide “refudiation” of the Bernank’s policy of QE. I am probably as disdainful of QE as you or anyone else, but I’d suspect things hold together at least thru spring. The markets don’t care about unemployment, etc; they only care about making money with free Fedbucks.
As for silver, I am plenty long and always looking to get longer. We both know there is going to be a day of reckoning when the newbies get flattened. From what price level that happens, I can’t tell you. Normally, silver has a habit of having trouble at round numbers, so I was pleasantly surprised to see it blast thru $25 with such gusto, but as I said, I’m not convinced it owns $30 yet.
The way I try to answer the question is by asking “how can the newbies be destroyed by about 25%”, and what I come up with is a serious DUMP from 32.high to about $25. Just my opinion, but I’ve followed Ag for quite a while. I still have the rolls of qtrs & dims I convinced the gals who worked the cash registers at my jr high school in 1965 to set aside for me.
It should be noted that a 10% correction in silver, perfectly normal event for any market, all markets, anywhere, any time, is over $3 at this juncture. A $3 move in silver in any year before 2010 is in itself “epic”, a giant, enormous move. For most of the time I followed silver, a 12 cent move was biggish, a 20 cent move was a once, twice a year event! And all I mean by that is that the traditional way the silver market devastates newbies is to let them accumulate positions on margin, then the COMEX raises margin req’ments (as it did about a month ago) and all the newbies get blasted out and forced to sell.
You make some excellent points. However, this time I don’t think it is about the price of silver. Rather, I think it is about the value of the dollars being used to purchase it.
I think we are in a 100 year storm, and depending on the knowledge gained by watching the typical cycles for the last few decades may lead one astray from what is actually happening.