Early Eclipse: F-35 JSF Prospects in the Age of Chinese Stealth

China Defense Blog ^ | December 29, 2010

[sukhoi-30mki]

Early Eclipse: F-35 JSF Prospects in the Age of Chinese Stealth

Much to the chagrin of Lockheed-Martin's JSF team, it appears there really is a new Chinese stealth fighter. And by the looks of it, the Chinese J-20 is a heavyweight contender built to challenge the F-22 Raptor. For the first time since the end of the Cold War, US air dominance seems in question. But where does this leave the F-35 JSF?

JSF is the "one-size-fits-all fighter", good for the US Air Force, Navy, and Marine Corps, as well as all interested foreign customers. In an attempt to meet all roles and needs, within an affordable budget, the JSF has necessarily compromised capability in some areas, particularly air-to-air combat. The US Congress and International Customers were told the JSF possessed sufficient air-to-air capability, with Lockheed-Martin claiming a "close and long-range air-to-air capability second only to that of the F-22 Raptor." However, with the sound of the twin-engined Chinese J-20 roaring down the flightline at Chengdu, it appears Lockheed-Martin's claim may have been a bit short-lived.

Many international customers currently invested in the JSF would have preferred purchase of the air-to-air optimized F-22 Raptor, but the US has banned Raptor exports. International buyers were told JSF was the best air-to-air fighter their money could buy. Now facing a likely overmatch against the Chinese J-20, JSF shareholders such as Australia and potential Asian buyers such as Singapore, Japan, South Korea, and of course Taiwan must now be quite soured on the US refusal to sell the F-22.

It seems certain the emergence of the J-20 into the Asian military equation will precipitate a cascade of new fighter procurement in the region. Beyond Australia which has already financially committed to the JSF, the F-35 will most likely not be among the new types sought.

[spetznaz]

A graphic I saw on some Chinese site that shows the various stealthy airframes/prototypes photoshopped against the same background as the J-20 prototype.

From top to bottom: USAF F-22 Raptor / Russian-Indian T-50 PakFa prototype / Chinese J-20 prototype / US-multination F-35 JSF / Northrop YF-23 BlackWidow prototype (dead) / Russian MiG-MFI prototype (dead):

By the way, this will either be very good or very bad for the F-35.

Very good in that the Chinese (and Russian) stealth concepts may make nations that may have decided to opt for the Euro-Canards (Eurofighter Typhoon / Rafale / Gripen) to instead opt for the only existing Western stealth design that is available to them (the F-35).

Very bad in that those same nations (particularly the likes of, say, Japan and South Korea) may feel that the F-35 may not be enough in terms of capability gap, and decide to create their own stealth designs. Both already have thought about it (with Japan having a Mitsubishi concept that went on pause, and the South koreans currently looking for a domestic stealth fighter program with partners), and this may firm the decision against the F-35.

Also, I am quite curious as to what Gates will say now, since he has been openly quoted as saying that there would be no competing foreign stealth fighter program for at least the next ten years. Well, in January the Russian/Indian PakFa flew for the first time, and this Chinese bird was supposed to take off before tomorrow (most probably some time early next year). Unless a time machine exists somewhere, that is a whole lot faster than a decade. There is also a question of the number of examples that will be built.

Finally, is it possible that the greatest beneficiary from all of this will be the USAF, which may find the F-22 Raptor lines kept open? And not just open, but also evolved Raptors coming out (e.g. updated avionics, AESA radars on their side-cheeks as was originally intended, etc)? Or will the US still be ok with having 187-1 crashed=186 Raptors (maybe around 140-150 deployable), and put the rest of their wad on the 'multi-role' F-35? It is quite possible that the greatest beneficiary of the PakFa and J-20 news will be the USAF.

[spetznaz]

-50 PakFa / F-22 Raptor / Chengdu J-20. Interesting to note just how different the J-20 design is when looked at from above when compared to the US Raptor and Indo-Russian PakFa.

[Yo-Yo]

Holy cow! That's a lot of rudder authority!

[Yo-Yo]

Wrong drawing of the J-20?

[CPOSharky]

There is a reason the Air Force planes can roll the Navy’s.

How many Navy A/C designs has the AF picked up?

[PIF]

Also, I am quite curious as to what Gates will say now, since he has been openly quoted as saying that there would be no competing foreign stealth fighter program for at least the next ten year

---

Since Gates is on his way out, it will be even more interesting who his successor will be and what his/her thoughts on this matter are.

Since David Obey retired and has been replaced with a Repub, the disposition of the Obey Amendment might be called into question (the amendment which bans the export of F22s).

[hattend]

Like the YF-23, it needs all that ruddervator travel because it doesn’t have thrust vectoring.

[Yo-Yo]

But unlike the YF-23, the vertical stabilators are too upright for any real pitch authority, and the F-20 is equipped with canards for pitch control.

[hattend]

Yep, pitch with canards, yaw with the huge stabilators.

Raptor bait

[Thermalseeker]

Yes, it is interesting, especially the part about the J-20 being the only one of the three that uses a canard.....

[ryan71]

If the latest Russian and Chinese fighters prove capable then we have big problems because they will surely out number us.

Conventional fighters are limited to how many weapons they can carry. Even if an F-22 can beat top line adversaries 5:1 or even 10:1 they may be overwhelmed by numbers.

We should develop VERY small UAV fighters in very large swarming numbers. Each would be very stealthy and carry 2 AA weapons internally. They would be fitted with small AESA radars and passive IR sensors. They would not need to be extremely fast or maneuverable because they would not be dogfighters. They would be weapons carriers, prepositioned at very high altitudes in anticipation of the threat, able to loiter on station for long periods of time.

Maybe something like Predator C Avenger but smaller.

[buckalfa]

“Finally, is it possible that the greatest beneficiary from all of this will be the USAF, which may find the F-22 Raptor lines kept open?”

One would hope, but given the current state of the economy, the growing welfare state, and crippling national debt, America may find itself in the position of the Soviet Union during the 1980’s. The United States simply may not be able to afford to go toe to toe with its principal adversary in an escalating arms race.

[lentulusgracchus]

How many Navy A/C designs has the AF picked up?

Lessee .... F-4, F-111, A-3/B-66. Three, I think.

[lentulusgracchus]

(Art.)

Now facing a likely overmatch against the Chinese J-20, JSF shareholders such as Australia and potential Asian buyers such as Singapore, Japan, South Korea, and of course Taiwan must now be quite soured on the US refusal to sell the F-22.

Bill Clinton is now guaranteed cult status in the PLA for generations to come. They'll be carrying his picture on May Day.

[cranked]

Money Shot? LOL!!
You had better show the front of this piece of shit cause showing the back of it would easily demonstrate that Chinese “stealth” is about as stealthy and a fully lit blow torch asking for a heat seeker without KY up its arse. =.=

[RayChuang88]

I don't think the Chengdu J-20 will be as stealthy as the F-22A, and I cite the following reasons:

1) The engine inlets are very exposed compared to the F-22 and PAK-FA.
2) The front canards are a potential major problem in terms of radar cross section (RCS).
3) The mounting of the vertical surfaces results in much higher RCS than the way the vertical surfaces are mounted on the F-22 and PAK-FA.
4) There doesn't appear to be any attempt to reduce the RCS and infrared signature of the exhaust nozzles like you see on the F-22 and very likely PAK-FA.

In short, it appears the J-20 will have to rely on all-out speed to win in a dogfight, not not maximum stealth.

[spetznaz]

I also do not think the J-20 will be anywhere as stealthy (or as capable for that matter) as the F-22, and as for the PakFa it was idealized to be able to out-compete anything China may come up with (I am certain this is a major shot in the arm for the folks at Hal and Sukhoi, who will definitely make the PakFa better than it would have otherwise been). The Raptor rules the roost of stealthy fighters.

However, the J-20 will not be used against Raptors (unless the NATF program comes back to life, which it will not, or there is some forward base that is somehow heavily immunized against Chinese IRBM attack). The likely opponents would be the Aussie F/A-18s and Indian/Russian Flanker variants on the lower end, and the Aussie/USN F-35 variants and Indian/Russian PakFa on the higher end. If we take out the PakFa (a major war between Russia and China, per Russian military doctrine, calls for nuclear strikes on Chinese cities should things not go to plan), we have the F/A-18 family and the C-Naval and (if it survives) B F-35 variants.

If one specifically looks at the F/A-18 and the J-20, it is interesting to note that the J-20 will probably have one big-@$$ radar (allegedly to be an AESA based on a Russian Irbis variant). It will be a huge radar with many TRMs. Furthermore, recent information on the Chinese PL-12 missile showed it was better than previously expected, meaning that a better RCS than the F/A-18, coupled with the probability of some (probably low, but who knows) level of supercruise, a larger more power AESA, and greater combat persistence may not be the best thing for F/A-18s. I would easily rather have a JSF over the J-20, but if the numbers of J-20s go above 200 then basically the air-war over the Taiwan Straits simply leans even more heavily for China.

Some day the US may regret its Raptor cuts, particularly when one notes this is NOT the only stealth fighter program China has (there is at least one other lighter stealthy fighter in the works). Also, the estimates Gates came up with on foreign stealth fighters was TOTALLY off the mark.

I wonder what Japan's response to this will be. They are obviously smart enough to realize that a F-18 entry for their FX program will simply not be sufficient.

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

Gates is totally inept. We need to open up the F-22 lines, and bring on the F/a-22 variant as well. If that comes at the expense of the F-35 then so be it. I never bought the line that we were so far ahead of the world that the Raptor wasn’t needed beyond 180.

[spetznaz]

Seems this might be the other Chinese stealth/y fighter design. The JH-7B. Again, like the J-20, it remains to be seen how real all of this is (not necessarily in terms of existence, but in terms of capability) :

[Iron head mike]

forgot the A-7