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To: Moseley

I think you are still mis-understanding the polling results, and mis-interpreting them. Posting more of your own writings on the subject as “news” won’t change the criticisms that have been levied and not answered in all the other threads you and others post about this.

In this case, you have several difficulties. First, your premise is based on numbers that are within the margin of error of the exit poll. In other words, there is NO difference between the exit poll and the official registration numbers, when viewed with the margin of error. IN fact, given the margin of error, it is equally possible that democrat turnout outperformed the registration number.

Second, registration numbers are lagging indicators of trends. Yes, new people get signed up, but a lot of already registered people simply won’t bother to change their registration. And since there was no democrat primary, we can’t use the comparative turnouts to see if there was a shift in demographics. So we have no way of knowing if the current “registration numbers” are accurately reflecting the will of the voters.

Third, turnout rarely matches registration. And in this year, across the country republicans were energised and enthusiastic, while democrats were demoralized and ambivalent. So, in most states, we see republicans outperform registrations, while democrats underperform. There are only a few states where that did NOT happen.

For example, in Nevada, The registration is 42% D vs 37% R, but turnout was 41-41.

IN other states, like Oklahoma, Democrats have a voter registration advantage of 49% to 40%, but comparing primary turnout shows republicans had a record high turnout, and democrats a record low turnout.

SO you really have to explain why Delaware bucked the trend — why did the democrats show up in the same proportion as republicans, when in other states republicans out-performed their registrations? The information we have doesn’t provide the direct answer, but it is MUCH more likely that this is because O’Donnell rather than Castle was the nominee; to suggest that O’Donnell had NO EFFECT on the turnout of the democrats is ludicrous.

Because of O’Donnell, democrats thought they could win a race they expected to lose. They then got millions of dollars to spend. Because O’Donnell was deemed to be a GOOD boogey-man for the national prospects, the democrats sent their power-hitters to the state, elevating it to a national prominence, again likely to crank up the democratic turnout.

And meanwhile, we are told that the republican establishment did nothing for O’Donnell — if that is TRUE, then how could you argue that the republican turnout was better than expected? If it was better than expected, what possible difference could it make what the republican establishment did. And if you think the RE made a difference, then you can’t argue that having THEIR candidate would NOT have made a difference, since that would have brought the RE into the race.

The problem with your argument is that it defies logic, it is internally contradictory, and is built on a faulty premise.


16 posted on 12/28/2010 9:36:20 AM PST by CharlesWayneCT
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To: CharlesWayneCT
Charles asked: SO you really have to explain why Delaware bucked the trend —

Because Obama remains popular in Delaware, whereas unpopular in the States where Republicans won. 57% of Delaware voters support Obama vs. 40% nationwide.

The Nov. 2. election was intended to be a referendum on Obama. If Obama is popular, Republicans will lose that referendum. If Obama is UNpopular, Republicans will win that referendum.
34 posted on 12/28/2010 2:12:16 PM PST by Moseley (http://www.MeetChristineODonnell.com)
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To: CharlesWayneCT
Charles asks: And meanwhile, we are told that the republican establishment did nothing for O’Donnell — if that is TRUE, then how could you argue that the republican turnout was better than expected? If it was better than expected, what possible difference could it make what the republican establishment did.

First, 18% of those Republicans who turned out voted for the Democrat Chris Coons: The "Sore Loser Republicans."

In Delaware, there are 293,817 registered Democrats but only 183,623 registered Republicans -- a difference of 110,000 more Democrats than Republicans.

So for any Republican to win Statewide requires that the GOP turn out Republicans in far greater proportions than Democrats.

Conservatives succeeded in getting a strong Republican turn-out, but not as great as could have happened if the Party had united and Mike Castle had endorsed the Republican nominee -- as he promised to do in May.


35 posted on 12/28/2010 2:15:59 PM PST by Moseley (http://www.MeetChristineODonnell.com)
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To: CharlesWayneCT
Charles writes: In other words, there is NO difference between the exit poll and the official registration numbers, when viewed with the margin of error. IN fact, given the margin of error, it is equally possible that democrat turnout outperformed the registration number.

But the thesis of the "Sore Loser Republicans" is that Democrats turned out in GREATER numbers because Christine O'Donnell motivated Democrats to vote against her. That is clearly proven
FALSE
.

No, it is not equally possible. With voter registration of Democrats at 47% and actual voter turn-out of Democrats at 44%, it is *NOT* possible that Democrats were actually higher than their voter registration.
36 posted on 12/28/2010 2:18:38 PM PST by Moseley (http://www.MeetChristineODonnell.com)
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