South Korea has "Had Enough", Currently Planning Military Attack on the North

Reaganite Republican ^ | December 13, 2010 | Reaganite Republican

[Reaganite Republican]

"...a South Korean government who does not react 
would not be able to survive..."

The United States and South Korean militaries have long had a plan (with multiple revisions over the years) for fighting and winning an all-out war with the Norks: OPLAN 5027. Regrettably, a copy of this was snaked by North Korean hackers last year. Following that debacle, a new strategy is of course in the works.

But these days -despite never-ending belligerence emanating from the DPRK- fear of war on that scale has diminished on the SK/US side: the penniless Stalinist hell of North Korea is on the cusp of a possible leadership crisis, while also painfully aware that they simply cannot win a full-scale continuation of the Korean War. Any serious attack on the South would promptly lead to the demise of the so-called 'hermit kingdom', according to most observers... and the nefarious Kim regime knows it. 

So after taking some serious political heat in the wake of the first attack on a South Korean civilian area since 1953 -Yeonpyeong Island- the conservative administration of Lee Myung-bak in Seoul has lost interest in absorbing unprovoked aggression from Pyongyang... they're drawing a line in the sand as a new hawkish defense chief takes office.

CNS News:

President Lee Myung-bak's government is suffering intense criticism that its response to North Korea's Nov. 23 barrage on a South Korean island was weak, and over the stunning revelation that the South's spy chief dismissed information in August indicating the North might attack the front-line island of Yeonpyeong. 

Lee's nominee, Kim Kwan-jin, told a parliamentary confirmation hearing that further North Korean aggression will result in airstrikes. He said South Korea will use all its combat capabilities to retaliate. 

"In case the enemy attacks our territory and people again, we will thoroughly retaliate to ensure that the enemy cannot provoke again,"...

Yesterday former US Naval intelligence officer Dennis Blair confirmed that Seoul indeed sees no potential benefit in mantaining a failed strategy of appeasement with North Korea... and is preparing to deliver a long-overdue push-back.

Breitbart:

The former chief of US intelligence has warned that South Korea has lost its patience with provocations by North Korea and "will be taking military action." 

Retired admiral Dennis Blair, who was director of national intelligence until May, said he did not think that hostilities would escalate into a larger war with artillery attacks on Seoul because North Korea knows it would lose. 

"So I don't think a war is going to start but I think there is going to be a military confrontation at lower levels rather than simply accepting these, this North Korean aggression, and going and negotiating," he said on CNN's State of the Union. 

Blair said the North had gone beyond its usual pattern of brinkmanship with an artillery barrage on a South Korean island that killed four people November 23, and the sinking in May of a South Korean warship, which killed 46 sailors. 

"So South Korea is beginning to lose patience with the North, which there was a great deal of patience," said Blair, who just returned from South Korea. Asked what that meant, the retired admiral said, "It means they will be taking military action against North Korea." 

His comments came as South Korea was preparing to go ahead with live fire drills off its coasts, but not near the contested maritime border with the North in the Yellow Sea.

And where are Kim Jong-il's traditional supporters -the Chinese- on all this? Shooting themself in the foot, basically-

While WikiLeaks-exposed cables last month indicated Beijing was also frustrated with the Kim regime's unpredictable brinkmanship -and would possibly acquiesce to a Korean unification under SK control- all we've seen in public is a diplomatically-clumsy Chinese leadership acting like nothing has changed at all... an ill-advised and wholly-irresponsible approach that is starting to inflict some serious damage on China's aspirations as a world power...

Robert Haddick writing in Foreign Policy:

Beijing's ham-fisted approach to the North Korean issue is causing other countries in East Asia to rally around the United States in alarm over Chinese intentions, a result exactly contrary to China's long term policy goals in the region. 

With no change in its policy toward North Korea, China should prepare for more diplomatic isolation and a stepped-up security response by the United States and its neighbors. 

On Dec. 6, the Washington Post's John Pomfret described Beijing's clumsy approach to South Korea in the wake of the North's hour-long artillery bombardment of Yeonpyeong Island. Four days after the attack, China sent State Councilor Dai Bingguo to Seoul, without an invitation or advanced notice. Upon landing, Dai demanded that South Korean President Lee Myung-bak abandon his schedule for the rest of the day in order to meet with him, which Lee refused to do. 

When the two met the following day, Dai told Lee to "calm down" and then delivered a history lecture on China-South Korean relations. Dai's diplomatic bungling was startling. 

After his departure, Lee and his new defense minister adopted a policy of military retaliation against the North. Lee then sent his foreign minister to a policy coordination meeting with his U.S. and Japanese counterparts. The United States proceeded with large military training exercises with South Korea and Japan. Soon after that, the U.S. and South Korean governments unveiled a completed free-trade agreement. 

China's actions regarding North Korea have done wonders to bring together the United States and its Asian allies...

And although plenty predictable, the official North Korean news agency's somewhat less-than-nuanced take is always good for a few chuckles:

The war confab of the U.S. imperialists and the south Korean warmongers is, in fact, little short of a declaration of an all-out war aimed at the escalated skirmish, declared a spokesman for the National Peace Committee of Korea in a statement released on Saturday. 

He went on to say: The U.S. imperialists and the puppet warmongers held a meeting of the chairmen of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of south Korea and the U.S. in Seoul on December 8 at which they discussed a very dangerous war scenario calling on the puppet forces and the U.S. imperialist aggressor forces to mount a military attack on the DPRK under the pretext of "deterring provocation" of someone. 

The U.S. imperialists openly approved the puppet forces′ plan to attack the DPRK by mobilizing all fighters and warships, etc. not bound to the existing "rules and regulations for battles," touting "their right to self-defence." 

They, at the same time, declared they would consider the proposal for supporting the puppet forces with "information about north Korea" and with "F-22 Raptors" advertised by them as the "most sophisticated fighters in the world" in case of a war between the north and the south of Korea.

Looks like one pugnacious pygmy dictator with a funky-looking Elvis 'do may be soon be getting an abject lesson in just how sophisticated the F-22 Raptor actually is: they'll never see it coming until things just start blowing-up.

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[AmericanInTokyo]

Welcome to Free Republic, and to the North Korean threads in particular.

We need more of your type here, weighing in with insight, rather than holding back and lurking.

I trust you have read us for some time?,

Again, welcome.....

[Domalais]

Thanks.

I didn’t lurk all that long... six months or so, maybe less.

[Reaganite Republican]

Thanks

Like the post says, no southern government can survive just sitting there like last time, and they need to at least provide some small deterrent

THEN get the Chinese on this... it’s certainly in their own interest to put a lid on the Kims, if not remove them- do a deal with the army, whatever

But just absorbing hits has the public up in arms...and it is a democracy

[Reaganite Republican]

BTW, I agree with everything you say except for the Norks have nothing to lose... the Kims have everything lose, and would promptly in any large scale war

I feel they would not scale up a conflict unless forced

[The Theophilus]

As part of this insane policy of re-engaging the former Soviet Union in yet another damned SALT treaty, we should define "disposing" of nukes that are over the quota as "giving them to South Korea" so that they may dispose of them as they see fit.

This should provide liberals with the wet-dream of weakening the security of the US and the globe, while giving the rest of us stuck on this train to hell some level of satisfaction that the nukes might actually be put to good use after all.

[jhpigott]

Domalais - no offense intended, but I believe you (and many others) greatly over-estimate the numbers and effect of the DPRK’s long range artillery.

I am not exactly sure how far north you would draw the boundary of the GSMA, but for arguments sake, the numbers below are based upon how much artillery the DPRK can bring to bear on downtown Seoul (financial/highrise district).

Contrary to popular belief, not all of the DPRK’s approx 10,000 artillery tubes positioned north of the DMZ have the range to reach downtown Seoul. In fact, the estimates I have seen are more like only 250-500 artillery pieces (and the higher #s only come into play if you include their 240mm MLRS systems).

The only DPRK arty with range to hit dt Seoul from behind the DMZ are the M-1985/M-1991 240mm MLRS systems and the M-1978/M-1989 170mm howitzer.

The DPRK is estimated to have only 200 of these 240mm MLRS systems and 200 170mm howitzers down by the DMZ. That’s not to make light of the situation because a signifcant amount of shells could still be layed down on Seoul, but a few hundred artillery tubes firing on downtown Seoul is ALOT different than 10,000 tubes.

http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/showthread.php?162240-Bluffer-s-Guide-North-Korea-strikes!-%282009%29

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/dprk/m-1985-mrl.htm

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-14/fighter-jets-to-buzz-seoul-as-south-korea-simulates-attack.html

Also, the ROK military has recently expressed confidence that in all likelihood it would be able to detect if the DPRK was preparing to launch its long range arty on Seoul and would be able to pre-emptively knock out a number of those tubes. Not to mention whatever surviving long range batteries are going to be priority for counter-battery fire.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2637356/posts

I believe the real threat to Seoul are the DPRK’s SRBMs (SCUDs and FROGs). I suppose the other big threat would be if the DPRK staged an invasion and advanced 10-20 miles on the western side of the DMZ they could wheel forward some of those other 10,000 shorter range arty tubes.

[TigerLikesRooster]

Another N. Korean military provocation like the one they did on Yeonpyeong will invite air strikes by SK (and probably US.) Otherwise, as the article says, current gov would be dead.

On the other hand, next provocation may be of different kind. High on the list of likely scenario is the infiltration by their special force inside S. Korea and carry out some serious sabotage operation. With no artillery sites or missile base to hit, the retaliation may not be directly reciprocal: NK could knock out some strategic target(not necessarily military,) and SK may have to retaliate by knocking out some NK's military installation, which is not a source of attack.

[TigerLikesRooster]

For the next confrontation, they could hit(blow up) a strategic target inside SK with special force. SK could retaliate by hitting some military target in NK, and then NK could fire their long-range rockets or artillery, which can reach close to Seoul. They will wait and see how public opinion will shift in SK: getting even more outraged or starting to get spooked.

It is worth monitoring pro-North leftwing elements in SK. When things heat up on military front, they will also create political or social chaos in SK. In commie playbook, two go in tandem. So level of their activity can serve as another indicator. If they suddenly create political turmoil on several fronts simultaneously, it will tell you that things are getting ominous. This will be matched by non-stop belligerent rhetoric from North.

[Domalais]

Unfortunately, this is a subject that I cannot discuss in detail.

Just consider that the direct effects of artillery would be only a small part of the effects on Seoul. A city that size deprived of power, water, and food would be a disaster management nightmare.

You are correct that the SRBMs are potentially a greater threat than conventional long range artillery. This is partially because of the wide variety of WMD payloads that could be delivered. How much destruction Seoul would receive depends on how those SRBMs are allocated between military targets and civilian targets. Traditional military planning would assume that most of those would be used against ROK and US military targets which are beyond the range of NK artillery. That assumes that NK actually thinks they can win a conventional war. I would be more inclined to assume that NK would inflict as much damage against civilian targets as possible to force an agreement that would ensure that survival of KJI and his regime.

[Domalais]

I think China would shelter KJI if he could in any way spin that ROKUS aggression forced him to do whatever he did.

[jhpigott]

Perfectly understand not being able to discuss this as I am sure it involves plenty of classified information not available open source.

I guess my point was that it is not a foregone conclusion that Seoul would look like Dresden after a NORK attack. 200-400 tubes even if only firing for a couple hours would make a mess of Seoul and knock out alot of civilian infrastructure to bring the city to its knees, but it could recover. But if 10,000 tubes were firing issues like power grid failure, water and food supply interruptions would be moot becuase there wouldn’t be any buildings standing nor many inhabitants left alive to complain.

Granted, the Dresden option does come into play if the NORKs can make a push south of the DMZ or if Kim can manage to strap a crude nuke on an A2 . . .

+1 on the inclination that Kim would focus his targeting on civies

[jhpigott]

What strikes me as ominous is the tone of Gates, Mullen, Blair and Sharp.

Almost in chorus, these guys are all saying things are going to get dicey on the peninsula

[Domalais]

I think nukes are less likely than simple dirty bombs.

It’s expected that NK would make it south of the DMZ.

[Reaganite Republican]

Thanks for an extremely enlightening post- much obliged, sir

Only thing I would add is tough to take out the ones they do have within range, my understanding is many of the artillery pieces are on tracks and pull right back into a mountainside cave once fired and their position betrayed.

Could a pre-emptive strike on these positions with, say, cruise missiles throw cold water on the Norks’ plans, tho...?

[Reaganite Republican]

IMHO Norks huge army might bog down in the face of US/SK air superiority, I don’t think they would get far into the south as they cannot control the airspace south of the DMZ

And the US has already pledged F-22s

[Reaganite Republican]

Right on, Theo

This SALT “deal” must have The Gipper turning in his grave at 10,000rpm

Utterly appaling

[gogogodzilla]

They probably won’t react at all to any ‘provocation’ by the South. It’s not their modus operandi. In all the past Nork aggression, they always wait until they can strike without any significant retaliation.

The Chonan sinking was a classic example. Was it a torpedo, or a leftover sea-mine from the Korean war? At the time, no one really knew, so the South waited until they knew... months later.

Far too late to react.

Which doesn’t mean that the Norks won’t remember this and then stage more aggression a few months from now.

[gogogodzilla]

Considering the mountainous terrain of North Korea, small tactical nukes used near ground level would work wonders, as the radiation would be contained on all sides by the mountain ranges.

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks jhpigott. From earlier in the month.