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When Will We Have Artificial Intelligence?
High Level Logic (HLL) Open Source Project ^ | November 13, 2010 | Roger F. Gay

Posted on 11/13/2010 5:28:58 AM PST by RogerFGay

From the High Level Logic (HLL) Open Source Project blog.

When are we going to have AI, one survey asks? It's a question relevant to HLL because so much of the thought behind the HLL design comes from the history of AI research and current technology that has come from AI research. The answer to the question when, with reference to HLL, is now. (Or at least as soon as version 1.0 is ready.) And that's no reason to get worried. As the description of HLL claims, you don't even need a high-powered computer science background to build applications with it – just some (OK, but at least reasonably good would be nice) programming knowledge.

The AI question is actually a bit tricky. It really depends on what you mean by AI. Way back in the cave computer days when I was first introduced to the subject, artificial intelligence research was defined as trying to get computers to do things that humans currently do better. Applying that definition, it seems as though the answer may be never. As soon as computers can do something at least as well or better than humans, it's no longer the subject of AI research. Object oriented programming is an example of something that came from AI research. Now a mainstream programming paradigm, many people don't associate it with AI at all.

The variety of ways of thinking about AI is also why some researchers predict AI won't exist far into the future while others (like me) are much more optimistic. People who answer the question may have something very specific in mind and think it will be a long time before it will become reality. You can also think about all the things computers do now – such as mathematical calculation – and make a case that AI already exists (something humans and computers both do, and computers do well). The great variation in predictions on when AI will come, has to do with both the particular set of things that the guesser thinks needs to be done before “AI exists” and how optimistic or pessimistic they are about doing them; while basic AI research always looks ahead.

You've probably heard that human intelligence is linked to the fact that we have opposable thumbs and other peculiar physical characteristics like standing upright and walking erect. Researchers recognize that in living creatures, intelligence and the characteristics of their physical bodies are linked, which makes robotics fertile ground for AI. Not all researchers focus exclusively on human intelligence and capabilities however. Some of the most interesting advances have come from looking for ways to mimic the behavior of other creatures, from insects and snakes to mules. The intelligence of a lower species is still intelligence, and some of the developments that come from mimicking their behavior can be applied in layers when mimicking behavior in higher ones.

Where does HLL actually fit in? Twenty-five years ago, when I was first thinking about the “high level logic” problem, I thought of it as a subject for advanced research. Since then, computer languages have advanced considerably and in ways directly matching the requirements of HLL. Strong networking support is a must, which has come from focus on Internet applications. Relatively recent additions to Java (which I've used to build HLL), such as strong support for generics and reflection have transformed some of the challenging bits into stuff that's just pretty cool.(Once again, application developers are not required to have expertise in these techniques – although it's quite alright if they do.)

To some extent, even the concept has been encroached upon (so to speak). The short descriptions of HLL have called it an “agent system” and I worry at times that it will be perceived as nothing more than an alternative to existing agent systems (which I won't mind so much if it becomes a popular one). The overall HLL concept is the thing that remains new. While fitting into the current modern software development world well, I still think it has potential as a tool in advanced AI research and application development.

HLL development has been proceeding as an ordinary software development project. With use of modern software technology and twenty-five years of thought behind it, not much experimentation is now required; less than the ordinary amount for development of a complex software system, because even details and how it all fits together have previously been thought about. And all that is why it (version 1.0) will be a powerful, light-weight system that is easy to use.

So, is it AI? When people are using it regularly to build applications, I certainly hope it's thought of as AI just as much as rule-processing or object-oriented programming and all the other things that have come from thoughts on developing AI; and yet, fully accepted and integrated into mainstream applications development. Why not integrate HLL support directly into programming languages?

For most people, thoughts on what AI is continuously focus on the future. With twenty-five years of history, I think I've earned the right to use a tired old cliche to end this note with a response. As far as HLL is concerned, the future is now. (Finally!)



TOPICS: Computers/Internet; Science
KEYWORDS: ai; software
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To: RogerFGay

We already have artificial intelligence. They’re the self-anointed “American intellectual elite” that populate our universities and press-rooms. I think the algorithms need a LOT more work.


41 posted on 11/13/2010 7:18:46 AM PST by MCH
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To: RogerFGay

I think AI will be achieved when we better master VM’s. From my readings, AI in a single host will consist of multiple VM’s operating on specific functions communicating across a high speed interconnect. As of today, that hardware does exist but is LARGE; not to mention the interconnects and virtual hardware is slow in comparison of what will be needed. There’s also the problem with digital vs. analog and the programming for one to emulate the other; but that’s a WHOLE ‘nother conversation.


42 posted on 11/13/2010 7:18:50 AM PST by Michael Barnes (Guilty of being White.)
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To: KoRn
After they DO indeed develop AI, how long will it be before we see ‘Artificial Stupidity’?

No need for this, since there's no shortage of natural stupidity and more than enough to go around. Besides, the fastest way of achieving such a technological breakthrough given today's technology would be to clone a Democrat, and we certainly don't need that.

43 posted on 11/13/2010 7:21:52 AM PST by MCH
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To: Michael Barnes

Well, depends on what you mean by AI. I’d certainly like HLL running on that kind of hardware - just to speed things up. Of course, the time to start programming in HLL is now, so that the “expert” functionality is developed as hardware continues in that direction. In the mean time, small steps Ellie. There are plenty of great apps that can be developed before the structure of hardware evolves into something more like a human brain. Actually though, sometimes the computer “brain” people who make projections about AI based solely on projections of developments in hardware tick me off a bit. OK, so Lotus 1,2,3 is gonna run faster?


44 posted on 11/13/2010 7:27:27 AM PST by RogerFGay
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To: The Antiyuppie

There was a scientist who was asked, “Will there ever be a computer as intelligent as a human?” He answered, “Yes, but only for a few moments”.


You can interpret that in two ways:
1. That humans will immediately unplug a computer as intelligent as they are.
2. Computers will quickly surpass humans in intelligence (once they finally catch up).

A few smart people (who should really know better) seems to think true AI will just happen if we build a sufficiently powerful computer to rival the complexity of the human brain. I disagree. The brain has some complex software which may take us centuries to understand and replicate. It will be a very slow, incremental process.

Way before that happens though, we will probably figure out ways to augment our own intelligence with external processing power with a brain-computer interface (interface device and WIFI chip in your brain). Picture doing a Google type search in your head (e.g., request and results). Or uploading a video to YouTube using your eyes as a camera. Or comunicating with Facebook friends in your head. It will resemble telepathy.

Ironically, the Star Trek Borg may be a good model for where we’ll eventually be.


45 posted on 11/13/2010 7:28:46 AM PST by rbg81 (When you see Obama, shout: "DO YOUR JOB!!")
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To: Caipirabob

And how sad is that? I have zero respect for the POTUS. I work really hard to teach my children to be respectful. They’re required to say “Yes, sir” and “No, sir” and are not allowed to address adults by their first names. (I detest the trendy “Miss Jane/Mister John” form of address that kids use today.) I really struggle to contain my utter contempt for the putz in front of them.


46 posted on 11/13/2010 7:38:44 AM PST by BuckeyeTexan (There are those that break and bend. I'm the other kind.)
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To: Caipirabob

And how sad is that? I have zero respect for the POTUS. I work really hard to teach my children to be respectful. They’re required to say “Yes, sir” and “No, sir” and are not allowed to address adults by their first names. (I detest the trendy “Miss Jane/Mister John” form of address that kids use today.) I really struggle to contain my utter contempt for the putz in front of them.


47 posted on 11/13/2010 7:39:04 AM PST by BuckeyeTexan (There are those that break and bend. I'm the other kind.)
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To: rbg81

Can it be made to work with binary logic and in anything close to real time?


48 posted on 11/13/2010 7:59:36 AM PST by DUMBGRUNT (The best is the enemy of the good!)
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To: 6SJ7
The Turing test is a test of a machine's ability to demonstrate intelligence. It proceeds as follows: a human judge engages in a natural language conversation with one human and one machine, each of which tries to appear human. All participants are placed in solated locations. If the judge cannot reliably tell the machine from the human, the machine is said to have passed the test. In order to test the machine's intelligence rather than its ability to render words into audio, the conversation is limited to a text-only channel such as a computer keyboard and screen. only channel such as a computer keyboard and screen.

"Tries to appear human" - that's appropriate, huh?

49 posted on 11/13/2010 8:23:20 AM PST by BuckeyeTexan (There are those that break and bend. I'm the other kind.)
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To: rbg81

There’s a third way to interpret the statement. After a few seconds, a human will become distracted by thoughts of sex. The computer of course, will continue its goal-directed focus, accomplishing a lot more than humans do. That’s one of the things that’s discussed in the alternative view article posted at the bottom of the original blog article. (Added it recently.)


50 posted on 11/13/2010 8:28:52 AM PST by RogerFGay
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To: Sudetenland
Precisely. It will not be “AI” until the computer is “self-aware” and self-programming.

They already are - artificially. "Genetic programming" is currently the most advanced machine learning technique that automatically programs itself and modifies its code to maintain and adapt. I haven't used that yet, but already I'm into automatically generating programs on the fly. Artificial awareness is something built into our learning robotics system - unless you also want do add a true emotional requirement. If the latter, then I don't think you're talking about "artificial" intelligence anymore. Artificial intelligence is more like Bender on Futurama. "As a robot, I don't have emotions, and sometimes that makes me sad."
51 posted on 11/13/2010 8:35:25 AM PST by RogerFGay
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To: Sudetenland

It’s been almost 15 years since I wrote my first program that wrote programs for commercial use.


52 posted on 11/13/2010 8:42:03 AM PST by RogerFGay
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To: RogerFGay

When will we have real intelligence?


53 posted on 11/13/2010 11:53:37 AM PST by Secret Agent Man (I'd like to tell you, but then I'd have to kill you.)
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To: Secret Agent Man
Idea: We do an AI dump into the RINO Republican’s brain housing groups — effectively turning them in to conservative “Stepford Wives.”
54 posted on 11/13/2010 10:16:35 PM PST by MasterGunner01 (To err is human; to forgive is not our policy. -- SEAL Team SIX)
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