Replies

Hildy, while you've been away Delaware has changed. The African American community now turns out to vote, with 98%+ Democrat. They are are 20% of the population in that state!

That means that if the white community is split 50/50, the Republican has, at best 40%.

That's a big disadvantage to overcome. in fact, to win the Republican has to attract 20% of the white Democrats.

It turns out that there are nearly as many Independent registrations in the state as there are Republican, with about more than twice as many Democrat registrations.

So it's not 50/50 ~ it's more like 75/25, an almost insurmountable lead on the part of the Democrats if they get their African American vote out, and their hard-core white Democrat vote, and a small percentage of the Independents.

It doesn't take many Republicans to defect to lose it all in that state.

Some people thought Mike Castle could win ~ they neglected to vote in the primary. Frankly, I think it was a fluke when Mike won in 2008 ~ and he knew it. That's why he went for the Senate vacancy this year rather than his own seat in the House.

Maryland, the next door state that serves as Delaware's armpit, is in even worse shape. At the same time the recent arrest of Mr. Johnson, Prince George's County manager and his wife (and probably a lot of his friends) should help destabilize the African-American campaign machine lock on the vote there ~ so I'd look for some serious Republican victories in other elections over the next 3 or 4 years.