Posted on 10/28/2010 11:10:35 AM PDT by Federalist Patriot
Here is video of University of Virginia Professor Larry Sabato giving his “Crystal Ball” final predictions for the upcoming 2010 Midterm Elections.
In his final predictions, Sabato said he believes Republicans will pickup 55-seats in the House, and 8-seats in the U.S. Senate. That would give the GOP control of the House, but two-seats short of taking control of the U.S. Senate.
Sabato said this election is “about the fundamentals” of a bad economy and an unpopular President, and “it was over a long time ago.” He believes about 40% of American voters will turnout, fairly typical for a Midterm Election.
Sabato believes Sharron Angle will win in Nevada over Harry Reid – but narrowly. He has Rand Paul winning in Kentucky, and Ron Johnson defeating Russ Feingold in Wisconsin. “I don’t know how Sen. Feingold comes back at this point.”
(Excerpt) Read more at freedomslighthouse.net ...
OK, 40% turnout is the bar. Let’s see how high we can get over it. Have you called Aunt Sally lately? Is she planning to vote? Maybe she could use a ride.
The key to why Sabato may well be underestimating the number of Repub House pick-ups may lie in his contention that turn-out will be the same in other off-year elections. Sabato, being strictly an unemotional bean counter is constitutionally incapable of factoring in the Enthusiasm Factor. I believe that alone will boost House pick-ups to 65.
Hedging bets, i think its gonna be a lot more, they always underscore a win for that purpose.
10 in Senate.
Now, where's that bookie already paying out for the House elections?
I quit following him on twitter because of his O’Donnel bashing.
Good old left wing Larry.
The same Larry that predicted that GW Bush would lose in 2004 and went around peddling that AstroTurf.
The same Larry who secretly worked for candidate James Webb but went on every TV and radio show trashing his boss's opponent Sen George Allen in a so called unbiased pollster/election expert role.
A complete Dem party vile operative cut from the “ landslide Kerry “ Zogby mold !
larry is a hard core Dem party operative.
+55 and +8..what does that mean, 70 in the house and 12 in the Senate?
O.k. O.k., I’ll settle for 62 in the house and 10 in the Senate!
“Sabato, being strictly an unemotional bean counter”
I think Sabato, like many media pundits and university faculty, leans Democrat, which biases his predictions against the R’s to at least some extent. Thus, I view his prediction as a lower bound and hope that he’s off by 2 in the number of Senators who flip. And it would be a terrific slap in the face to Obama if his midterm House losses far exceeded Clinton’s.
Let’s concede ex ante that the Republicans will not exceed their biggest landslide in history (1896), when they picked up 130 seats. But it would great to exceed the net seat pickup of 62 they got in 1920 as part of Harding’s landslide “return to normalcy.”
I think he is an arrogant tool. To think that the Repubs will only pick up 1+ seat more than 1994 shows he doesn’t get it at all.
He figures turnout will be typical for a midterm election!
I have to admit....I’ll be slightly disappointed if this is where we land.
I am hoping for annihilation!!!!!!
El Rushbo thinks that Raese will win W. Va.
Okay, that’s nine. Where do we get the extra one?
Tell me that Rove is not going to be RIGHT about COD of DE.causing the loss of ten!
Washington.
I posted a similar prediction about a week ago. I think it’s realistic and a very good showing.
You do know that Sabato is an extreme leftist in a 3/4th majority Democrat city (Charlottesville).
And is he ever a self-promoter! As someone once said of such individuals, “There’s not enough mustard in the world to cover that hotdog.”
I agree with you all the way around. What little emotion Sabato is capable of mustering will bias him in favor of Dems. I’m sticking with my 65.
Dick Morris predicted GOP will win in Washington and/or California. I hope he is right.
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